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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Jim McCormack who wrote (16174)8/24/1997 1:27:00 AM
From: Joe Antol   of 42771
 
Jim (and ALL). PPS: You know I'm not a short, and you know I'm not a Novell basher

(or at least I think you know that -- I know that most of the people here know that -- including the Novell folk <s>).

Anyway, just because you and I were talking about "products" and the like, I thought I'd just throw some "sentiment" from UseNet up here.

It kind of [sort of] fits in to the "well,
we're gonna get a whiz bang new product out real quick now to fix everything" posture I think.

I personally take what I read on usenet with a grain of salt. But, it's interesting to see what other people's "takes" are on things also.

Also, they better get those "products" out very, very quickly!
Although we've been saying that too, for the last year. (No cigar!).

I still say, "there's always another way to achieve something other than the obvious" <grin>.

Oh well, last post for now (good night <S>).

==========================Excerpts from UseNet=======================

From: "Dave" <75300.3712@compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: Novell
References: <33eb405a.6524092@news.zorro.net> <5sj37p$t5m$1@newsxfs02-int.news.prodigy.com> <01bca64b$31af6eb0$cc76b4cc@david> <33f3c567.3549829@news.zorro.net> <5t5kfa$42v@cssun.mathcs.emory.edu>
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Hi,

I used to work for Novell (and also for HP) and at least while I was at
Novell, they seriously lacked leadership, direction and a new flagship
product. While I haven't been following it very closely lately, it would
appear that nothing has changed.

Netware and Unix will both be around for some time but likely decreasing in
usage significantly. NT I believe has already well surpassed sales of
Netware and Unix (probably combined but I don't know for sure). The
industry has already embrassed the fact that HP intends on moving focus
from Unix to NT. Why develop Unix anymore..lots of development cost, etc.
They make their money selling systems, not software. So what does it
matter, whose software is on it. It doesn't

As I said Netware and Unix will be around for some time, but their role
will be slowly taken over by NT as it proves itself and Microsoft makes
enhancements, and then companies like HP jump on board and add enhancements
to NT to better support their hardware.

I used to own lots of Novell shares, still own HP shares they at least have
some other business ventures that could do well.

Good luck!
--
-->Dave
Windows Xpert Systems makers of
QuotesNow! the best stock quote program for Windows 95/NT
quotesnow.com (download your copy now!)

Shun Yan Cheung <cheung@mathcs.emory.edu> wrote in article
<5t5kfa$42v@cssun.mathcs.emory.edu>...
> In article <33f3c567.3549829@news.zorro.net>, <rsnthl@zorro.net> wrote:
> >On 11 Aug 1997 11:43:09 GMT, "David Ray" <dray@cei.net> wrote:
> >
> >>The company is not dead but the product is. If they don't do something
> >>revolutionary, they WILL be dead soon.
> >>
> >Yeah that's what they said and still say about UNIX.......still going
> >strong.
>
> UNIX is still doing very well indeed. Latest release of Window NT
> cannot match UNIX's efficiency. But NT is improving, but the gap
> is still large. NT is getting mostly popular with low power users.
>
> But the case with Novell is different. The whole world has turned
> to use IP (in particular TCP/IP). Anyone using Novell IPX network
> is more or less isolated from the rest of the world unless they get
> an IP gateway. Why then go the trouble of IPX if the IP based network
> services are getting better and cheaper.
>
> --
> Shun Yan Cheung | Email: cheung@mathcs.emory.edu | Phone: (404)
727-3823
> Emory University | mathcs.emory.edu
> Dept of Math and CS |
--------------------------------------------------------
> Atlanta, GA 30322 | Nee heb je, ja kun je krijgen... Ja heb ik gekregen
!!!
>
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From: rsnthl@zorro.net
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: Novell
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 1997 03:22:00 GMT
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On Mon, 18 Aug 1997 23:07:53 -0400, "Dave" <75300.3712@compuserve.com>
wrote:

>Hi,
>
>I used to work for Novell (and also for HP) and at least while I was at
>Novell, they seriously lacked leadership, direction and a new flagship
>product. While I haven't been following it very closely lately, it would
>appear that nothing has changed.

Does anyone read the news? EVERYTHING has changed in the
management/leadership area of Novell. Eric Schmidt (whose idea
was something call JAVA) is the CEO. Christopher Stone (whose idea
was something called CORBA) is strategist. John Slitz (IBM's best
salesman) is in charge of sales and marketing. Look....I work for
IBM...in Networking, and we are seeing a transition to NT, BUT.... NT
has a lot of problems, particularly with large systems, problems
Novell got past long ago. These guys are going to come out with
something that will blow NT away, I can just feel it. All NT is, is a
derivative of UNIX, it's nothing new as far as the transport is
concerned. Novells' IPX/SPX has always equalled or bettered
any other transport. NT does not have what it takes, and Microsoft
is having problems patching it up. It looks nice, and it does some
things well, but when you load it up with more than 1500 users,
it bogs badly, and I don't think Microsoft is going to be able to
fix it without a completely new approach. But hey, let time be the
interpreter of these thoughts. We'll see soon!
sr
======================================================
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From: cheung@mathcs.emory.edu (Shun Yan Cheung)
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: Novell
Date: 21 Aug 1997 23:54:09 -0400
Organization: Emory University, Dept of Math and CS
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In article <33F6B4F6.5B31@tech-world.nospam.com>,
Alan <ac@, tech-world.nospam.com> wrote:
>
>IPX also offers the multi-protocol security advantage of isolating your
>network by use of a separate protocol. Machines configured only with IPX
>cannot access or be accessed from the Internet expect through a special
>gateway. It adds another level of security that appeals to smaller shops
>with lower level techs.

IPX is no trouble only if your entire company is in a building or on a campus.
It can be very expensive to use IPX to span a wide area. If security is
your concern then there are much more flexible ways to achieve it at
the session level. Achieving security through using a network protocol
creates unnecessary isolation and isolation from the Internet is probably
*the* problem with IPX. Networks work best when it's open at the network
layer so you can connect to anywhere in the world. If you want security
(or any other feature) you need to fix the upper protocol layers, but
never tamper with the network layer.

--
Shun Yan Cheung | Email: cheung@mathcs.emory.edu | Phone: (404) 727-3823
Emory University | mathcs.emory.edu
Dept of Math and CS | --------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta, GA 30322 | Nee heb je, ja kun je krijgen... Ja heb ik gekregen !!!
==========================================================
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From: rsnthl@zorro.net
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: Novell
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 1997 15:50:17 GMT
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I'm going to give you folks a break, I quote from Lan Times
June 9,1997 page 18......

Eric Schmidt New CEO of Novell says:

"Nobody at Novell has come to me to argue that TCP/IP and Java
are the wrong answers. I have yet to find anybody who is not actively
moving product space (that's Novell Product) into Java and TCP/IP,
which, of course, IS MY RELIGION."

"How long does it take to get world class TCP/IP and pure internet
products out of the company (Novell of course)? We have targeted stuff
in the next six months."

"Right now we need to get our NetWare basic product line to have IP as
its default architecture as opposed to IPX"

HELLO!!!!! are you all gettting this?????

Follow it for yourself, the whole interview is posted at Lan Times web
site at www.lantimes.com . The most recent issue has an interview with
Christopher Stone. New strategy officer at NOVL, he is the guy
behind CORBA for you folks who don't know.

I'm going to shut up now.

sr ;>
=======================================================
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From: "Paul" <mordred@spiritone.com>
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: Novell!!!
Date: 23 Aug 1997 19:52:48 GMT
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rsnthl@zorro.net wrote in article <33fe6e29.1533385@news.zorro.net>...
> I'm going to give you folks a break, I quote from Lan Times
> June 9,1997 page 18......
>
> Eric Schmidt New CEO of Novell says:
>
> "Nobody at Novell has come to me to argue that TCP/IP and Java
> are the wrong answers. I have yet to find anybody who is not actively
> moving product space (that's Novell Product) into Java and TCP/IP,
> which, of course, IS MY RELIGION."

Java is by no means "definitely" the way to go. In its current state it is
pretty unusable as far as I am concerned. Microsoft's ActiveX stuff is way
cooler. That is another argument, however.

>
> "How long does it take to get world class TCP/IP and pure internet
> products out of the company (Novell of course)? We have targeted stuff
> in the NEXT SIX MONTHS."

"We will have it any time now!" How long has Java been around now? A few
years. How about TCP/IP? Quite a few years. Novell has missed the boat
in a big way.

Companies like Novell will always lose to companies like Microsoft. From
this interview, it looks as if Mr. Schmidt is betting the farm on Java
panning out. Microsoft doesn't bet its whole farm on anything. It bets on
everything. That way it always wins.

> "Right now we need to get our NetWare basic product line to have IP as
> its default architecture as opposed to IPX"
>
> HELLO!!!!! are you all gettting this?????
>
> Follow it for yourself, the whole interview is posted at Lan Times web
> site at www.lantimes.com . The most recent issue has an interview with
> Christopher Stone. New strategy officer at NOVL, he is the guy
> behind CORBA for you folks who don't know.
> And don't forget John Slitz marketing genious.....

The bottom line is that Novell has lost IT mindshare. Most IT management
is singing the NT song. IT management makes the buying decisions. Look at
the job offerings in any major city. Everyone wants NT experience and
Novell to NT migration experience. (This is my area of specialty, so feel
free to take my words with a grain of salt. :)

Paul

> Read this:
>
> lantimes.com
>
> I'm going to shut up now.
> sr ;>
>

==============================
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From: "Paul" <mordred@spiritone.com>
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
Subject: Re: Novell
Date: 23 Aug 1997 20:36:34 GMT
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rsnthl@zorro.net wrote in article <33fd02e1.9734847@news.zorro.net>...
> On Mon, 18 Aug 1997 23:07:53 -0400, "Dave" <75300.3712@compuserve.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Hi,
> >
> >I used to work for Novell (and also for HP) and at least while I was at
> >Novell, they seriously lacked leadership, direction and a new flagship
> >product. While I haven't been following it very closely lately, it
would
> >appear that nothing has changed.
>
> Does anyone read the news? EVERYTHING has changed in the
> management/leadership area of Novell. Eric Schmidt (whose idea
> was something call JAVA) is the CEO. Christopher Stone (whose idea
> was something called CORBA) is strategist. John Slitz (IBM's best
> salesman) is in charge of sales and marketing. Look....I work for
> IBM...in Networking, and we are seeing a transition to NT, BUT.... NT
> has a lot of problems, particularly with large systems,

Disagree. Go and read about Microsoft's Scalability Day. Largest database
in the world is running on an NT system.

>problems
> Novell got past long ago.

Wrong.

>These guys are going to come out with
> something that will blow NT away, I can just feel it.

I refuse to invest money on your gut feelings.

>All NT is, is a
> derivative of UNIX, it's nothing new as far as the transport is
> concerned.

So? And actually that is not technically true.

>Novells' IPX/SPX has always equalled or bettered
> any other transport.

Wait a second. In your other post you are ranting that Novell is dumping
IPX/SPX to go with TCP/IP. Why would they dump it if it was so superior?
Maybe because nobody is using it? It doesn't matter if it is better(which
I agree with to an extent. It is faster.) if nobody uses it.

>NT does not have what it takes, and Microsoft
> is having problems patching it up. It looks nice, and it does some
> things well, but when you load it up with more than 1500 users,
> it bogs badly, and I don't think Microsoft is going to be able to
> fix it without a completely new approach.

Microsoft has a completely new approach in NT5. If you thought NT4 was a
competition killer, wait until NT5.

Novell doesn't exactly shine with that many users either. If companies
need that many connections, they buy a Unix box. Connections are only a
small part of the big picture. How about processor scalability? NetWare
supports how many? Two with difficulty. NT does 4 out of the box and many
more for certain OEM versions.

>But hey, let time be the
> interpreter of these thoughts. We'll see soon!
> sr
>
We sure will. I am neck deep in this industry everyday. MS is not on the
way out.

Betting for the underdog in sporting events is kinda fun. In investing, I
will go for the winners.

Paul
=======================================================

Regards,

Joe...
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