You have to admit that the short mentality can be a very cynical one. When stocks are fat and high it makes sense and is actually healthy but when the economy's struggling and companies are fighting to regain their footing (influencing peoples' jobs, retirement, college tuitions, well-being, charitable contributions etc.) you're not exactly a nice guy bashing stocks and calling for the end of the world. I never minded shorts until about a month ago when they really started irritating me by bashing every single tech stock out there, including the strongest ones like VZ, ADBE, GE, etc. And if I heard CSCO was going to single digits again I felt like puking. That talk makes bulls mad once they get the advantage and they enjoy taking your money all the more. For their own good and for the good of the economy both. A healthy stock market is now crucial to our economic well-being as a country. doesn't mean buy overvalued hype jobs, but bashing at the bottom is an ugly business. Sort of like suckering people by hyping at the top. But I guess someone always has to lose. And this week (and next I believe) it's the shorts. From my point of view, nice to see for a change. They've had it easy too damn long.
However, that said, I am not worried about the short gangs anymore. They've had their day and they'll never be as cock-sure again. The stage is set for a nice gradual improvement which lots of short-term upside action. Some profit-taking sure but dips will be bought into this time around. Another 20% at least by mid May. After that I won't speculate. There may be some shorting opportunities by then but nothing like we've seen. re-testing lows? Fuggetaboutit. Never happen again unles some new calamity strikes. All possible bad news priced in.
But eventually after that we recover, rate cuts kick in and we solidify at substantially higher levels. Maybe 30-40% higher. Some stocks will more than double buy then, especially those most beaten down on any okay news. So maybe buy the dogs now. They might havea big rush like Jan 5-11. Many doubled that week alone (then sunk back down).
On Bush tax cuts, I doubt they'll make any difference at all they're so back-loaded and deficit-producing. But some wealthy people will invest their extra money in the market eventually. And when wealthy people die they won't have to give anything to the government. Bush claims it's for working Americans and family farms. Hogwash. It's for old money and big money. Period. New study said almost no family farms pay estate taxes anyway. Typical. Party of and for the rich. Let's hope we qualify with the right investments. |
