Comments welcome, anyone...
To : Shack
From: JRI Friday, Apr 13, 2001 7:30 AM
Respond to of 93790
Shack....a couple more questions....
Is it valid to look at the previous correction waves within this bear....in order to devine what this wave is about?
If so....I'd think there (really) only two to consider....the late November bounce.....and the bounce in January...
The late Nov. bounce (I don't remember the exact figures.....but I believe it was from around 2550 to 3000)....that's a move of "only" 17.6%......but on that move, on a % basis, many of the high-beta stocks moved 50-100% up....(similiar to what we've seen in the last week and a half).....also, the November bounce came after we broke out a pretty severe downchannel (if I recall)...similiar to what we are seeing now...
The 2nd one...of course...is the January bounce.....
from 2261-2890 (approx.) or 27.8%.....also the move was about a 32-33% retracement (if I have my figures correct) from the Sept-Jan. downmove....
Taking January as the measure, 2890-1623 = 1267.....times 33% = 418 pts....418 pts + 1623= 2041 as a target
(I guess one would also have to consider a 50% fibo of the recent downchannel.....or 633 pts...or 633 + 1623= 2256)
Taking 27.8% (% of Jan. move).....1623 x .278= 451 pts....or 2074 target..
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So, I see these following targets (again, my numbers are rough, if you plug in the correct ones....)
* 2041 (33% retrace of down channel, similar to Jan. move)
* 2074 (27.8% gain off of the bottom, similar to Jan. move)
* 2256 (50% Fibo retracement off 2890-1623 move)
Note: The 2041-2074 "wall" fits in nicely with the COMPX downchannel line providing resistance....which I'd think we'd have some trouble getting over. 2256 gets us near the failure points in Feb.
- The current move, however, reminds me more of November (so far)
Is it the case that bear market corrective waves are similar in %? (I'd think that more valid than absolute numbers)..If so, then I'd think the 33% target is valid..
Or do you have something else in mind? |
