Russia warns of pressure on inspectors
By Mark Turner at the United Nations and Roula Khalaf in Baghdad
Published: February 20 2003 21:31 | Last Updated: February 20 2003 21:31
Igor Ivanov, Russian foreign minister, on Thursday warned that "very strong pressure" was being exerted on United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq, "in order to provoke their departure from Iraq, or to force them to present material to the Security Council that can be used as a pretext to start military operations".
Allegedly based on information available to Moscow, his dramatic claim highlights the degree to which Security Council members are looking to the inspectors to break their deep impasse over a possible war.
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The divide centres on whether the immediate threat from Saddam Hussein justifies military action - and its consequences. France is adamant it does not; the US says international order is at stake.
After a month of increasingly assertive statements, there appears little room for compromise, and all sides are looking to the inspectors to offer them either unambiguous support, or to provide them with the political cover they need if they choose to climb down.
The doves on the Security Council want to demonstrate inspections can achieve peaceful disarmament, while hawks are looking for confirmation that Iraq is not fully complying, rendering inspections impossible.
While US officials have denied any untoward manoeuvring - "We reject the characterisation of pressuring them," said one - in private, other UN diplomats suggest pressure on Hans Blix, chief inspector, has become a fact of life.
Seeking a way through, some countries have pushed for clear benchmarks on co-operation by which Iraq can be measured. But US officials say even those could be manipulated.
In Baghdad, European envoys say Russia and France in particular, but also Iraq's neighbours, are raising pressure on the Iraqi government to provide high-profile concessions ahead of a March report by chief UN weapons inspectors.
But after almost three months of developments Mr Blix has offered no statement that unequivocally supports one side or the other, and it is questionable whether he will at his next scheduled update on February 28. He has also shown that pressure has little effect on his determinations.
Since his last report, the first flights by U2 spyplanes, which Baghdad had resisted in the past, have taken place, and a decree has been issued banning production and import of weapons of mass destruction.
There are, however, questions over whether the decree is adequate, and UN inspectors are frustrated by a lack of progress on private interviews with scientists. Only three out of 31 experts requested for interviews have so far agreed to the terms of Unmovic, which inspects chemical, biological and missiles programmes, and they were held before Mr Blix's latest report.
Another key test could be the fate of Iraq's al-Samoud 2 missiles, which have been tested beyond permitted ranges and which UN inspectors have said are proscribed. No official request has been submitted, but the US and UK expect inspectors to ask for their destruction.
But even that could prompt disagreement. If Iraq concedes, doves will say it proves inspections are working. The US, however, insists the missiles prove Baghdad has continued to flout UN resolutions - and warns that piecemeal disarmament cannot work.
UN officials say progress will be also measured by whether Iraq provides more documents on outstanding disarmament issues. Western diplomats suspect the government may well bow to UN requests, perhaps before the next report, although possibly only at the last minute.
Additional reporting by Rafael Behr in Moscow |
