Hi Brian, RE: "What kind of startup if you don't mind my asking?"
It's one of my favorite topics, so I don't mind you asking at all. I love the topic.
Except I keep tight boundaries between my hobby on SI and work. I haven't posted what our startup is/does, nor what my full name is anywhere on SI, all are confidential.
My earlier post, 2 of my replies up, had nothing to do with my startup. (I wouldn't have posted about them if they did.) Those were strictly related to comm, and consumer end-user sales to boot. The thing in my post that I feel is interesting, is the news on how their end-user sales increased. I think these 3 are some of the first to truly turn around, though the rest of the industry isn't there yet. In an economic turnaround, I believe the thing to look out for is the actual end-user sales, not necessarily what the component manufacturers say since actual adjustments in chip orders would occur on the behind, a trailing indicator, not leading.
My background as a PM makes me inclined to hone in on anything new in the market. The TCs that got plentiful early in the summer of 2000 interested me, and by the end of the summer I was bugged by it, though I didn't have the luxury of time to hunt that rabbit down. Wish one of us on the thread had done some reading up on it, or engaged in more earnest discussion around whether or not it was feasible to consider it as a potential indicator of a new trend, rather than dismissing it. By August 2000, we all learned that new trend had significant meaning and huge consequences to a lot of us as investors.
The 3 companies that reported stronger end-user sales, interest me, certainly not with the same intensity that the TC's did. Not at all. But an interesting scent nonetheless.
On the downward trend, I think the first appearances of a select few component surpluses provide the leading indicator. On an upward turnaround, the end-user sales will be the leading indicator, maybe starting with only a select few. I mean, it's either a new product-line trend here, or it's a leading indicator of a turnaround.
Currently, it appears the analysts seem to think the pick up in some of the comm sales is not due to an increase in end-user demand but rather due to the inventory being cleared away. I don't entirely buy that argument for these 3, because these 3 appear to be real end-user demand increases. 3 is a start.
Regards,
Amy J |
