I know what you mean, but there are some head-scratchers in the dialogue.
In the next message, Vi says... "I am not so pessimistic about the future. The proposed new bailout package is actually aimed mostly at the American people. However, the Fed has not been reformed, and the very same people that ran the bubbles in the 90-s during the Clinton era have been put in place by the Obama Administration. Things will change as we go through the crisis, and the crooks will quite likely eventually come to light, just like Bernie did, causing a lot of public disgust and lost confidence in the process.
Eventually, this process may even shift the public opinion so much that the Fed will be eliminated by congress. However, IMHO this will be a process possibly stretched over years, not an event that just happens abruptly after January, 20. A currency crisis of some sort is inevitable, and it usually does the job of jailing some of the crooks, first the scapegoats, then maybe the real crooks (maybe not :()
In particular, excessive printing and handing cash to the banking crooks could eventually lead to very high inflation, and that will definitely piss people off. Whether or not something good will come from it is to be determined."
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OK, so the immediate banking crisis appears to be over...
.... except, people are still buying gold like mad.
US will be looking for trillions from bond buyers...
.... except, Germany is already in trouble
Message 25308704
We must get rid of derivatives...
.... but how? Some of these things have 5 years to run. How do we stop OTC markets?
USD has technical strength...
.... But world+dog knows it can't last
And on, and on ...
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There are more questions than answers. Everybody wants to see the US dig itself out - but it can't be done overnight. Even if there's substantial foreign support (looking at Germany's recent experience, that's a big "if") it looks like a serious cut in the standard of living, with a need for reversion to production of tradables unequalled since WWII.
It would be great to see Obama's vision of economic justice realized, with the return of strength and stability to large, and increasingly marginalized portions of society.
Yes, it can be done; but the competition, now, is a lot stiffer than it was after WWII. The US will have to achieve awesome competitive standards.
That's the best scenario. Others are less attractive.
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There are some serious divergences between what we know and what we hope for. If the information we already have is accurate, markets are overvalued; what's more, the prospects for real growth are nothing like they were after WWII, which suggests less upside. That was suggested anyway, in a world approaching Malthusian limits.
Only a fool wants to see the US go through wrenching change and spiral into depression, perhaps taking the rest of the world with it. Enemies of the US should be careful what they wish for.
The problem is that the upside scenarios seem far less likely than the downside scenarios. Fortunately, economics isn't just about money; if the US can be unified again as it was under Roosevelt, then perhaps Obama can repeat the economic miracle, without the war.
Jim |
