Marc,
Yes, I'd agree the fundamentals are better now than 6 months ago. Downside risk is less, simply because the stock is going for half the price. Upside potential is greater, based on the Siemens agreement and the additions of Obertueffer, OGI, and Kim. BUT - no-one else is standing still, either. LHSPF has a major deal with MSFT. IBM and Dragon's products are well-accepted and developing linkages as well. Other neural network products are on the market, all in the same 6 months. SO - if I had money to invest in ASR, where would I put it? - still in LHSPF. That was the right choice 6 months ago (doubled, while FONX halved), and it's still the right choice, IMO. It has diversified products, it has much better linkages (Siemens and OGI notwithstanding), it has a history of upside earnings surprises, and it has good management. With all that going for it, the only reason I'd buy FONX instead is IF 1) I was CONVINCED they had a lock on the technology that was going to win AND 2) I was impressed with their management's ability to execute for the shareholder. Needless to say, I don't believe either is the case.
So my question for you is, why don't you think LHSPF's upside potential is as good or better than FONX's? I can only imagine you saying that they could assume the same dominance as INTC or MSFT, but I emphasize again - INTC, MSFT, and CSCO got where they are through incredibly outstanding management. FONX does not have that - period. Even if Bill Gates or Andy Grove selected FONX's technology, you can bet FONX shareholders would do OK, but the stock and the technology will remain in the shadows of INTC or MSFT, and never get to their level. Just ask the folks who created Java - unquestionably a major, major development, used by everyone, yet still in the shadows of the big boys. So FONX's upside is NOT unlimited. They cannot write their own ticket. They do not have a monopoly, or nearly so. The patents clearly do not reserve the field of ASR via neural networks for FONX, even if that is the only way to go. They are and will always be dependent on partners, and playing second fiddle - and that's the best case scenario!
Bob |
