WBMW,
re: While all the other analysts have hitched a ride on the "economy sucks" bandwagon, Joseph is posting signs of a recovery. Ironically, Joseph was also the one that predicted the downfall, while all the other starry eyed analysts were riding the bull market. I wonder if history will repeat itself, and Joseph again finds that he is correct, while all the other analysts get left behind. What do you think?
Actually, I believe Joseph went bullish on Semi's just prior to 9/11, maybe even a little earlier. The SOX is probably about the same level as it was then, with quite a ride in between. I like Joseph better than the rest, at least he's trying to aim at where the market is going, not where it is today.
As far as the "economy sucks" bandwagon, most analysts are getting much more bullish on the economy in general. Some predicting as much as 5% GDP growth, and 25%+ earnings growth, this year. It's the tech growth that is in question. Looking at longer term charts of the SOX index, where you normally get some kind of a "V" bottom in the cycle, this one has a long, flat bottom. I suppose that's because of the huge capacity and inventory that was added in 99/00, it's taking longer to work through the excesses (?).
BWDIK,
John |
