VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (16250)	11/18/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: I. N. Vester	of 27311

Larry, you're the one with the heartburn over my pointing out your continuing failure to add any revenue from Hanil. You're so focused on the boogie monsters you've been looking for (massive dilution etc etc) that you fail to draw the right conclusion from your own analysis! As I pointed out, it's not unreasonable to multiply Valence earnings estimates multiply by 1.5 to account Hanil growing at the same rate as vlnc and having close to the same starting capacity and adding at the same rate. This is consistant with their published plans Let's take your analysis and accept your premises for the sake of argument, (except that I think we'll have at most one more warbucks financing per Lev and I'd figure 40 million shares). You gave us .89 annual eps for 2001, excluding Hanil revenues. Multiply by 1.5 for full earnings including Hanil = 1.33. That's what we expect to make in 2001. Let's not forget that under these assumptions we had a 300% yty earnings increase. That should justify at least a 30 forward PE on a bad day. So that gives a target of $39 on or about 1/2001. Let's see that's a 500% return on a share bought for $8 today. This is not a risk free investment, Larry, but you've given us a target of a 5-bagger in one year. Of course Valence has to execute, but even if they're slow by a quarter or 2, well I can wait 18 months instead of a year for $39/share. You obviously have at least some idea of the upside potential otherwise you would waste so much time here. You just want a written guarantee that things are moving along as well as management has told you. That will come but at a much higher price. I'm sure you're so cautious that you will keep waiting and sniping. Our party will continue apace with or without you. Keep pissing in the wind Larry if you enjoy it so much.

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