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Non-Tech : $2 or higher gas - Can ethanol make a comeback?
DAR 36.61-0.5%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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From: richardred9/10/2006 12:01:09 PM
   of 2801
 
Ethanol production comes at a high price

September 10, 2006

By GLENN E. SORENSEN

Leaping toward biofuels without looking where we will land is fraught with great danger. So let's not be too quick to celebrate the end of oil.

New ethanol production facilities are popping up around the country, but in reality it was a backdoor mandate from Congress that allowed this to happen, the idea being that steadily increased use of corn-based ethanol could reduce our reliance on foreign oil. So Congress proceeded to ratchet up our nation's ethanol quota. An estimated 5 billion gallons of ethanol will be produced this year, up from 4.2 billion gallons in 2005, and the amount will rise each year to at least 7.5 billion gallons in 2012.

But ethanol has some serious problems. Its increased use has led to fuel shortages, sizable cost increases at the pump, higher food prices and worries about the depletion of groundwater in the Midwest.

The ethanol mandate has added an estimated 20 cents a gallon to the average cost of reformulated gasoline containing 2.7 percent ethanol. With E85 – a blend of 85 percent ethanol, 15 percent gasoline – the increase has been steeper.

Ethanol proponents claim that biofuels will protect consumers from gasoline-price shocks, but ethanol is no panacea. It provides less mileage than gasoline, so drivers have to fill their tanks more often, adding to the cost.

There's irony in that fossil fuels are needed to make ethanol. Growing all that corn requires petroleum-based fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides. Oil is needed to run tractors. Large amounts of natural gas are used in the heating process for distilling corn into ethanol. Because it can't be shipped by pipeline, ethanol is transported to blending facilities by truck and rail, requiring more fossil fuels. Several studies, including one by David Pimentel, professor of agriculture at Cornell University, show that obtaining ethanol from corn consumes more energy than ethanol provides.

The ethanol industry couldn't survive without subsidies. It receives a 51 cent per gallon federal tax credit. An additional tax credit goes to "small" ethanol producers whose output is less than 60 million gallons a year. Also, tax credits and other incentives are offered by 14 states, mainly in the Midwest. And government subsidies for corn farmers amount to billions of dollars annually.

Today's almost blind rush to cash in on ethanol may well be trading very modest improvements in air quality and greenhouse-gas reductions for adverse consequences on underground water supplies. It takes four to five gallons of water to produce one gallon of ethanol. In the Midwest, the water comes mainly from the same underground aquifers used for crop irrigation. Hydrologists warn that crops could fail if ground water levels drop during a prolonged drought. So it is likely ethanol production will require alternative sources of water or run up against serious opposition from farming interests.

The reality is that 15 percent of America's corn crop – 2.15 billion bushels – is allocated toward ethanol production, and this has already caused corn prices to rise 30 percent, causing an across-the-board increase in food prices.

As more of the nation's corn goes into producing ethanol, the impact on consumers will increase. It's estimated that if ethanol were to provide only 1 percent of our nation's energy needs, more than two-thirds of the nation's corn production would be needed to make the fuel.

A more practical and less costly way to provide the fuel needed to run our automobiles would be to expand oil production in the United States. The U.S. Minerals Management Service estimates there are substantial offshore oil resources, but 90 percent of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf is off-limits to oil production. Legislation that would open up more of the shelf is awaiting final passage in Congress. It's difficult to envision our economy remaining healthy unless there is more domestic oil production.

Ethanol has a role to play in America's energy future, but only a relatively small part. It will not replace oil but rather serve as a supplementary fuel. Make no mistake: It comes at a high price.

Glenn E. Sorensen Jr. is a retired petroleum geologist. He lives in Barre.

rutlandherald.com
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