Roger...
Re: AMZN
Just found this in Barrons. Given this is a paid subscription, I will only post a small snippert of the whole article.
I guess my $325 target could be low. My reasons for believing that AMZN will eventually tank early next year are:
1. Post split time.
2. The Christmas sales hype will have been reported giving a boost before the drop.
3. It seems like every analyst is now pushing the stock, thus my contrary view.
4. All the remaining 10,000 "fundamental" reasons everyone on this thread has mentioned.
I have no position and I do not know if I ever will have as I am perhaps too conservative.
>>To get an idea how Meeker thinks, take a look at how she values Amazon: The global book business generates annual revenues of $85 billion. Say the total market expands to $100 billion in five years, while the online segment of it grows to 10% of the market from 1% today. Even if Amazon's market share drops to 60% of the online segment from its current 90%, that means $6 billion in revenues for the company, up from an estimated $600 million today. Next comes music, primarily compact discs and tapes, which generate annual sales of $45 billion a year, and lots of other areas that Amazon may choose to tackle.
Meeker admits she's been somewhat frustrated that Amazon hasn't "proven that its financial model works." But she says Amazon's critics are missing the big picture. "The point is: Given that the market opportunities are so large, should companies be allowed to lose money to seize the No. 1 spot?" Meeker says for Amazon, the answer is yes. And the stock market clearly agrees with her.<<
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