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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject6/5/2001 11:14:49 PM
From: Michail Shadkin   of 6873
 
AEN - interesting idea on the short side

AMC Entertainment Inc. is a holding company that, through its direct and indirect subsidiaries, including American Multi-Cinema, Inc. (AMC) is principally involved in the theatrical exhibition business throughout North America and in Portugal, Spain, France, Japan and China (Hong Kong). The Company is also involved in the business of providing on-screen advertising and other services to AMC and other theatre circuits through a wholly owned subsidiary, National Cinema Network, Inc., and in miscellaneous ventures through other wholly owned subsidiaries. As of March 30, 2000, the Company operated 211 theatres with a total of 2,903 screens
Also, as of March 30, 2000, the Company had four megaplex theatres under construction with a total of 87 screens.

Market cap is 255 million
Cash is 2.77/share

Debt/Equity is 36.90 (talk about a leveraged business, imagine those interest payments)

EARNINGS PER SHARE
Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001
JUN -0.180 -0.130 -0.480 -0.550
SEP -1.180 0.330 -0.010 -0.440
DEC 0.010 -0.070 -0.380 -0.350
MAR -0.250 -0.820 -1.240 -2.710*

Totals -1.600 -0.690 -2.110 -4.050

(march 2001 quarter had a large charge)

AMC Entertainment Inc. Closes $250 Million Equity Private Placement
biz.yahoo.com

(btw this money is included in the cash per share higher)

``In a year that saw almost all of our major theatre company peers seek bankruptcy, our record results are a testimony to the foresight of our strategic initiatives and our unsurpassed asset quality,'' said Peter Brown, chairman and chief executive officer. ``We look forward to continued execution of our plan that, with our newly strengthened balance sheet, will keep us at the forefront of our industry.''

Net loss for the fourth quarter was $63.6 million ($2.71 per share), compared to last year's loss of $29.1 million ($1.24 per share). For fiscal 2001, the Company's net loss was $105.9 million ($4.51 per share), compared to last year's loss of $55.2 million ($2.35 per share). Fiscal 2001 net loss was increased by charges for the impairment of long-lived assets and an accounting change. Excluding these charges, which were non-cash, net loss for the fourth quarter was $24.6 million ($1.05 per share), and for the fiscal year, the Company's net loss before charges was $53.9 million ($2.30 per share).
biz.yahoo.com

Conclusions:

AEN has been losing money forever.
Business is amazingly leveraged.
Incredible debt.
One day could fall like a house of cards.

They have been closing some very unprofitable locations and building new beautiful theatres.
Also, less competition there, as many have gone bankrupt.
Still, this is very tough business with incredible interest debt payments.

The bottom line is, they arent turning any profits any time in the forseable future.

The current run has been basically because of the financing in May.

I been watching them for a week now.
I am waiting for any significant 1 day spike to start shorting long term.
Would love to start at 12 or higher.

For now patient.
Long term target back below $5

traderpulse.com
Michail
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