From that other board:
"For many decades, the US stock market has generally followed a four-year cycle. Significant bear market lows occurred in 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1982. The broad stock market has normally spent 2.5 or 3 years going up and 1 or 1.5 years going down.
A new market cycle guru emerges in almost every major stock market cycle, once every 4 years. A guru's fame tends to last for 2 to 3 years. The reigning period of each guru coincides with a major bull market in the United States.
A market cycle guru forecasts all major rallies and declines. Each correct forecast increases his fame and prompts even more people to buy or sell when he issues his next forecast. As more and more people take notice of the guru, his advice becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. When you recognize a hot new guru, it pays to follow his advice....
The success of a market cycle guru depends on more than short-term luck. He has a pet theory about the market...At first, the market refuses to follow an aspiring guru's pet theory. Then the market changes and for several years comes in gear with theory. That is when the star of the market guru rises high and bright above the marketplace....
A guru usually earns a living publishing a newsletter and can grow rich selling his advice. Subscriptions can soar from a few hundred annually to tens of thousands....
At investment conferences, a guru is surrounded by a mob of admirers. If you ever find yourself in such a crowd, notice that a guru is seldom asked questions about his theory. His admirers are content to drink in the sound of his voice. They brag to their friends about having met him.
A guru remains famous for as long as the market behaves according to his theory---usually for less than the duration of one 4-year market cycle. At some point the market changes and starts marching to a different tune. A guru continues to use old methods that worked spectacularly well in the past and rapidly loses his following. When the guru's forecasts stop working, public admiration turns to hatred. It is impossible for a discredited market cycle guru to return to stardom....
Mass psychology being what it is, new gurus will certainly emerge. An old cycle guru never fully comes back. Once he stumbles, the adulation turns to derision and hatred. An expensive vase, once shattered, can never be fully restored."
"The personalities of market gurus differ. Some are dead, but those who are alive range from serious academic types to great showmen. A guru has to produce original research for several years, then get lucky when the market turns his way."
"When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders' emotions on their faces.
Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professional simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities."
----Elder
83 ====> 21.64 = -74% wow (emphasis on the ow) zer. |
