Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (163837)	5/4/2002 1:43:56 PM
From: Mark Adams	of 436258

I think off balance sheet debt and SPE's got by 'us', or maybe I was napping during that discussion. I do recall discussions about aggressive accounting practices coming to light, breeding a general sense of distrust. As it is, I think I've fallen victim. What point is there checking debt/cashflow/liquidity if there are undisclosed guarantees and covenants lurking in the shadows? What I don't recall is what follows in the script we see unwinding. I suspect the recent 18 months of cascading downtrends, punctuated with occasional sharp rallies, is to be replaced by another 18 months of grindem up churning. Possibly forming a new base as earnings catch up to valuations. This latter phase is proving more difficult to trade bull or bear. At least for me. I thought maybe covered calls (granted, risking much to gain little) might be an appropriate play for this period, but vols dropped enough to make me wonder. Maybe vols dropped because of supply- pro's writing more calls and naked puts? Is VIX subject to supply and demand forces?

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