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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: DlphcOracl who wrote (16431)4/16/2001 8:49:44 PM
From: CAPTAIN MORGAN   of 37746
 
Decent put/call article, an excerpt:

The current situation is quite different, as we are clearly in a bear market, and higher levels of fear should be expected. It seems many analysts not experienced in sentiment analysis are missing this important point. Because there is likely some "natural" pessimism factored into this bear market, it is quite possible for the current "extreme" in the ratio to become even more extreme before marking a market bottom. In fact, it is likely that the ratio may have to peak in the mid-0.70s area before the climax in fear so necessary for a reversal is reached.

the link
cnbc.com

Another excerpt re: CSCO

Chart 2 shows Cisco Systems' {CSCO, News, Boards} put/call open interest ratio for a one-year-period. The fact that this ratio sits at the 15th percentile (at this writing) indicates for the most part that options speculators are about as optimistic toward CSCO's prospects over the short term than at any time over the past year.

This high relative level of optimism flies in the face of the stock's weak technical picture, which shows the equity having lost more than 80 percent over the past year. This suggests that CSCO remains vulnerable, as selling potential could still be substantial with investors (like AS) continuing to perceive "value" in the stock. Only when these value players capitulate as the stock depreciates further will the stock likely reach a true bottom.

Counterpoint by AS: Message 15670329
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