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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 393.24+1.1%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: THE ANT who wrote (164570)10/31/2020 9:05:31 PM
From: arun gera   of 218477
 
<Yes I made an off the cuff guess based on a couple estimates early on.>

And it was a decent guess based on the curve for the covid infected population in a geo-bound area. But the spread continues and it has now reached the rural areas. So deaths continue although at a significantly lower rate, as you predicted.

In Queens, New York during the March-April period, population samples showed as high as 50% of the people with antibodies. The death rate there was about 4,000/million, which today could be comparable to 1000/million. USA overall is at about 700/million. So herd immunity at 1000/million in USA (if it has happened in Queens, NY) is about 100,000 deaths away. You can decide whether that is near or far enough.

-Arun
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