I hope these off-topic references to the Y2K thing are not too annoying to others on this thread.
From my point of view, the political, economic, and financial dimensions of the problems in Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and perhaps Taiwan are so vast that initially I was simply anxious that a computer software problem not share center stage with those problems. The combination of good judgment, resolve, and diplomacy (both internal and external) needed to deal with these problems so as to benefit everyone involved will not be easily found. So far (maybe because no effects are immediately apparent on the US economy) the situation has not been exploited for political purposes by either of the American political parties, but that could change quickly.
As always, a major source of difficulty is the tendency to reason by analogy rather than to evaluate what the situation actually is. For example, many people expected Korea simply to recapitulate the Japanese triumphs. The Korea Fund sold at a huge premium to NAV because investors assumed it was another case of the Japan Fund. We have a local automobile dealer who had made a fortune by connecting himself early with Toyota; his daughter tried to do the same with Hyundai and after a few years had to switch to Chrysler because Hyundais were not the same thing as Toyotas.
Reading this thread is fascinating because of the analytical and generalizing power of some contributors. I still can't grasp much of what is taking place, but feel that I am at least listening to reasoned discussion.
Back to Jack's question: I don't know, but there are a lot of files and information at the site I supplied and maybe one of them will help. |
