being generous, one could assume 2 trillion barrels
If I remember correctly, Deffeyes' calculations refer to conventional oil (i.e. liquid at room temp). For unconventional deposits, the Athabasca bitumen deposit alone holds somewhere between 1.6 and 2.5 Trillion barrels of oil, of which at about 300 billion barrels are considered recoverable with current technology and at current ($25) oil prices. Proven reserves are 176 billion barrels, producing around 1MBPD (e.g., syncrude.com, industrialheartland.com. The bitumen is upgraded locally or is shipped south for upgrading in Edmonton.
Within the next ten years, the region will pump around 2 million barrels per day, ranking it with the mid-sized OPEC countries.
Between the Athabascan and Venezuelan bitumen deposits, current conventional reserves, and the potential for Gas-to-liquids technology, I see a cap of $40 for oil for the next hundred years. Upsets in supply could send the price higher, but only temporarily, IMHO.
-g |
