Less Pwr Available For Calif Summer Than Thought- Report
Dow Jones Newswires
LOS ANGELES -- A California legislative analyst released a report Tuesday saying the state faces a larger electricity shortfall this summer than has been estimated by the California Energy Commission.
The report found that less in-state generation would be available, less new generation would come on line, and less energy would be conserved via demand-responsiveness and energy-efficiency programs, than the commission estimated in its November report.
The report, written by Elizabeth Hill, was requested by the Assembly Subcommittee on Electricity Energy Oversight to evaluate summer 2001 electricity supply and demand data included in reports issued by the CEC and California Independent System Operator.
The legislative report evaluated the CEC's electricity demand and supply forecast for an average summer and for a hotter-than-usual summer. The forecasts were further broken down by what conditions are expected to be like on July 1 and then in late summer, since more generation is expected on line after July 1 and demand reduction is expected to increase by then.
According to National Weather Service extended forecasts, parts of southern California will see temperatures this summer that are 5-10 degrees above normal. Parts of the Pacific Northwest, where much of the state's imported power comes from, will see temperatures 0-5 degrees above normal.
Summer peak demand was estimated in the CEC report at 57,909 megawatts assuming normal weather and 61,125 megawatts assuming unusually hot weather. While the CEC found that available resources from in-state generation and imports would total 56,166 megawatts for the summer, Hill put the figure at 53,991 megawatts.
"When looking at the baseline balance, the state faces a larger shortfall than portrayed by the CEC, due primarily to less available resources within the ISO control area," Hill said in a letter sent to Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg, chair of the committee which requested the report.
The CEC estimate of available power is overstated by about 1,000 MW, Hill said in her report, because qualifying facilities supply less power to the grid than the commission estimated. Qualifying facilities are run by independent generators and usually involve some kind of renewable energy like solar or wind power.
Power Suppliers May Not Want To Sell Into The
State
Hill also noted the amount of electricity imports the state will be able to draw on isn't certain.
"Since roughly one-quarter of potential supply is produced by private generators, there is no guarantee that all of this amount will be sold for use within California," Hill's letter said.
Indeed, power traders have begun to speculate that power suppliers may not want to sell into the state this summer, given that summer forward power prices for California are lower than for neighboring states.
While the CEC report estimated new generation would bring an additional 4,978 MW on line by summer, Hill found that by July 1 there would be only 2,454 MW of new power. By late summer that figure would increase to 3,895 MW of total new power on line.
Hill's report estimated that no peaking power plants would be on line by July 1, but 250 MW would be up by late summer. The CEC report counted on 1,000 MW of new peaking generation, which Gov. Gray Davis later vowed to have on line by mid-July.
Generators, however, have been reluctant to submit peaker proposals due to the political and economic uncertainty surrounding the state's energy crisis.
Hill also found the CEC overestimated how much peaking power would be available from an ISO program that contracted 1,133 MW for summer. Many of those projects have been placed on hold due to generators' concerns that they will not be paid. Hill's report estimates 600 MW from the ISO program will actually make it on line by July 1, with 200 MW more on line by late summer.
Demand-response programs would conserve 3,879 MW by late summer, Hill said, and not the 5,552 MW estimated by the CEC. Likewise, energy efficiency programs would conserve 422 MW by late summer, not the 598 MW stated by the commission.
Hill also provided for almost 1,000 megawatts of additional power off line for outages than the CEC report did.
Hill noted in her letter that the CEC's estimate of peak demand included a seven percent reserve margin as an operating cushion for unplanned events like forced power plant outages. With a revised 6% reserve margin and assuming all estimates are accurate, the state will have a "surplus" of power on July 1 totaling 4,199 MW if temperatures are normal, and 983 MW if they are warmer than normal.
The CEC report and Hill's report don't address what supply and demand conditions will be before July 1, Hill said. |
