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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who started this subject5/18/2002 2:18:11 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
dollar dis'ing and multinational hyping... the multinational grass is always greener on the other side. Beware of IBM puts <g> buy the dow!

barrons:

Reduced demand for U.S. assets has become a concern because of the need to fund the massive deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of international transactions. The U.S. current-account gap is running close to 5% of GDP, a level that a Federal Reserve study found typically leads to a depreciation of a nation's currency by 10%-20%, notes Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist at Sungard Institutional Brokerage. The currency adjustment also involves typically three years of sluggish economic growth -- not a pretty portent.

Like most analysts, Morgan Stanley's Quinlan expects a gradual decline in the dollar. He sees the euro rising to 95 cents from about 92 cents currently and a low of 86 cents in late January. He also looks for the yen to trade at 130-125 to the dollar, compared with 126 yen currently, but stronger than the 135 level three months ago, despite Japan's continued economic woes. "If we're right about an orderly decline in the dollar and stronger global growth, that's a good environment for large-cap, multinational companies," he says.
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