"The key political question is whether Bush is at the bottom of a slide from wartime highs, or at a temporary pause in a longer decline. The answer may have more to do with the economy than with developments in Iraq, and here, too, there is a hint of positive news for Bush: Forty-eight percent approve of his handling of the economy and 49 percent disapprove."
Holding Steady
Bush Administration Gets a Break From the Polls at a Sensitive Point
Nov. 17
— Public views of the war in Iraq are holding steady in the face of stepped-up guerrilla attacks and mounting casualties, and President Bush's job approval rating has stabilized as well — a respite for the administration at a sensitive political point.
According to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, Bush's overall job approval rating stands at 57 percent, about the same as it was in late October and fairly stable since July. Bush's approval rating for handling the situation in Iraq is a good deal lower — 48 percent — but this, too, has steadied.
Those are positive results for the White House given that the last few weeks have been some of the deadliest in Iraq since the war started in March. So is the fact that 62 percent of Americans say U.S forces should remain until order is restored, despite the casualties.
Other results are less favorable, suggesting the president's Iraq policy is far from out of the woods. Sixty-four percent term the number of U.S. casualties as "unacceptable," and just a narrow majority, 52 percent, say the war was worth fighting. (But the number who say it was not worth fighting also has stabilized, at 44 percent in the last three ABCNEWS/Washington Post polls).
The key political question is whether Bush is at the bottom of a slide from wartime highs, or at a temporary pause in a longer decline. The answer may have more to do with the economy than with developments in Iraq, and here, too, there is a hint of positive news for Bush: Forty-eight percent approve of his handling of the economy and 49 percent disapprove.
While still weak, and essentially unchanged from two weeks ago, those numbers are somewhat better than two months ago, when Bush's economic rating reached a career-low 42 percent. And, for the first time since July, less than a majority disapproves of his economic performance.
The economy is clearly the wild card. The strong third-quarter GDP shows striking growth; the question is whether that reaches voters — in the form of jobs and income — in time for Bush to benefit in November. The benefits of recovery from the 1990-1991 recession were slow to filter down from Wall Street to Main Street, helping cost Bush's father a second term.
This poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, as the Bush administration moved to speed up the timetable for a transfer of power in Iraq (a transitional government by June and election of a permanent government by the end of 2005). Parameters for an endgame may make the continued mission somewhat more palatable in the short run.
Casualties
As noted, 64 percent say the level of casualties is unacceptable — a numeric high, but essentially unchanged from two weeks ago despite the rising toll.
At the same time unacceptability of the casualty count is up 20 points since June.
The 52 percent who say the war was worth fighting also is a numeric low, but again essentially unchanged from two October polls, when it was 54 percent. It's down from a high of 70 percent on April 30. (A similar pattern occurred after the Persian Gulf war more than a decade ago. At war's end, 86 percent said it was worth the cost; four months later that was down to 67 percent).
Presidential Approval
While Bush's job approval rating is down 20 points from his 2003 high of 77 percent at the height of the war, his current rating, 57 percent, matches the career averages of Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan.
Even Bush's low — 53 percent a month ago — is high when compared with the previous four presidents. Clinton's low was 43 percent approval, Reagan's 42 percent. Bush's father bottomed out at 33 percent and Jimmy Carter reached 28 percent.
Groups
There are sharp partisan differences in Bush's ratings. Nine in 10 Republicans approve of his performance as president; that slides to 51 percent of independents and only a third of Democrats. The partisan pattern is similar on Iraq and the economy, with more than eight in 10 Republicans approving, compared with about four in 10 independents and a quarter or fewer of Democrats.
There also are marked divides by gender and race. Bush's overall rating is 11 points higher among men than women, 62 percent to 51 percent. The gap is also 11 points on Iraq and 13 points on the economy. And while majorities of whites approve, that falls to just over one-third of nonwhites in terms of Bush's overall work, and one-quarter for his work on the economy and his handling of Iraq.
These divisions carry over to questions about Iraq. While 57 percent of men say the war was worth fighting, women split, 48 percent to 47 percent. And while majorities of both sexes say the level of casualties is unacceptable, men are 14 points more likely than women to say the opposite.
Seventy-two percent of men say U.S. forces should remain in Iraq until order is restored, compared with 53 percent of women. Just among independents — classic swing voters — the gender gap is 27 points.
Views of casualties are intertwined with feelings about the war. Among those who say the level of casualties is acceptable, more than eight in 10 say the war was worth fighting; this falls to just over a third who say the casualties are unacceptable.
Most of those who disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq and say the war wasn't worth fighting say the United States should withdraw its troops. But those who call the level of casualties unacceptable split on the stay-or-withdraw question, 47 percent to 48 percent.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Nov. 12-16, among a random national sample of 1,023 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by ABCNEWS' David Morris. Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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