John,
re: I feel like I just got roled in a big breaker and every time I come up for air I get smacked under by another wave of irrational pessimism. Lord save us from the doom and gloom.
Random thoughts.
I think that 9/11 may be having more of an influence on the psyche of the country than many people think. The images of the planes crashing into the towers, the towers collapsing, the fear of the people on the ground, all the images are burned into every Americans subconscious. I think on that day we became a much less optimistic and a much less confident country.
Now we get an Enron, and it's much easier to project that across the 1000's of American companies. We get a slowdown in sales in the slowest seasonal quarter, and we perceive it as a trend rather than an event. We react with fear to a suicide bombing halfway across the globe. We discount good economic news and anticipate a double dip when there is no evidence. And we start thinking that anything bad that can happen, will happen. We are less optimistic, and less confident.
P/E ratios are the financial expression of optimism and confidence. Would the market have corrected without 9/11, of course it would. Would it be as bad as it has been, I'm not sure, but I doubt it.
Many people probably disagree with this, and say it's all about earnings, and facts and numbers. But just ask your self if you were more or less confident and optimistic pre or post 9/11. In the end, I think it's just as much about psychology as it is about numbers.
John |
