Well, folks, its time for me to move on. I have truly enjoyed and learned from the dialogue here. I've become convinced, however, that I won't be investing in (or shorting) this stock for the forseeable future, so I'll be dropping this bookmark, though I'll still be on SI, if anyone cares to track me down.
My reasons are several, and probably boring to all by now, but I'll summarize them here, if only for closure for myself!
I think this company is a lot like a biotech, which is a little more familiar ground to me. It has a bunch of scientists, searching for the answer to a problem. No-one knows if they'll actually find it before everyone else also doing similar research, so valuing such a company becomes problematic. A typical approach is to multiply the R&D budget by some factor, and then fudge up or down based on whether you think their current is research is extremely promising, how well you like management, alliances formed with bigger companies, etc. On this basis, fonix was still overvalued at $3, and wouldn't be a buy until it got to $1 or so. If that seems extremely low compared to other biotechs, just remember how many shares are outstanding, most in the hands of management. Even when it gets to be a good value (at $1 or so), you still have to trust management to take the right steps for shareholder value, and you still have to believe there's a good potential to be a market leader. I have very little confidence in either possibility.
So its time to move on. Fonix may hit it big time; it won't be the first time I've been wrong! It just seems there are more productive places to spend my time and money at this point, so that's what I'm gonna do. Thanks again to all for an enjoyable and worthwhile discussion!
Bob |
