EMLX TECHNICAL CHARTS (PAGE 1) from Yahoo
by: prudentinvesting101 (28/M/Raleigh, nc) 10/29/01 09:57 pm
Msg: 50861 of 50875
First and foremost folks, I will recognize that this stock put up one hell of a fight on the way down. It was absolutely amazing. But, it finally succumbed to larger market forces. It is often said that 70% of a stock price's direction is market oriented, 20% stock specific and 10% industry related. I will explain why I believe this stock is going down for awhile with some logical charts and commentary.
Here are some Charts for everyone to observe. Do whatever you want with them. I don't care. It isn't investment advice but it these are the charts that guide me to making my investment/trading decisions.
First, I believe we are entering a LONG-TERM downtrend in the market. I put the most credence in long-term trends. So, monthly trends are more important than weekly and weekly more important than daily. Lets look at the Dow Jones and EMLX from the context of monthly performance and current support.
MONTHLY DOW JONES
stockcharts.com[m,a]maclyymy[pc20!c200!c10! c5!c15!c100!c50][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lk14!Lp14,3,3]
- Key point. We broke the 9500 levels, which is the 50-month EMA (exponential moving average) trend line. I will fully acknowledge that the dip below the 50-month last month was caused by the tragedy of September 11th.
But, lets recognize that we managed to move back above this trend line by Friday of last week. From those levels, we broke through them today. Typically, once you bust through a trend line you tend to then test the next trend line. It is just a matter of time.
In this case, Anthrax scares, fears of further terrorism, unemployment at 18 year highs, falling consumer sentiment, rampant credit card debt and falling consumer sentiment are big drivers into the reason the trend line broke through the 50 month average. On top of that, you got Friday’s report that the real estate market appears to be contracting. I believe the market is signaling to us that we need to be vary wary of weakness in the economy, the visibility in earnings and when an economic recovery might occur.
Monthly EMLX
stockcharts.com[m,a]maclyymy[pc20!c200!c10!c 5!c15!c100!c50][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lk14!Lp14,3,3
- notice how a downtrend began in the 5, 10, 15, and 20 month averages? More importantly, we couldn't break through the 10-month average of $27.44! We only have 2 more days left in October and I don’t think this stock is going up! This is remarkable and indicates that the bias is to the downside. The 15-month average is $33.26, the 10-month is $27.44 and the 5-month average is $22.91.
EMLX & fibre channel hasn't been "hot" for 6 years so take a look at the weekly and daily graphs if you think I am full of sh..
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