Come on, the Palestinians expelled into Jordan? This is ridiculous. A war between Syria Iraq and Israel?
It may sound crazy Zeev, but hear my scenario out before judging it too harshly.
Imo, Jordan is the most vulnerable of the Arab Kingdoms. It's population is predominantly Palestinian and it has made an unpopular peace with the Israelis, which subverts the goals of Saddam and the Syrians towards their own usage of the Jews as a convenient tool to promote their own authority (Saddam's claim of being the new Saladin).
Furthermore, the Hashimite regime is fractured into several factions, those who support King Abdullah, and those who supported former crown prince Hassan, who was ousted after holding that position for 34 years and was heir to the throne. Now there's no evidence that Hassan looks forward to his nephew being outsted, but if he detects a wave of sentiment that threatens to unseat the entire Hashemite power base in Jordan, he may opt to oppose Abdullah, who would be loath to tear up the peace treaty his father worked so hard to implement.
csmonitor.com
So what I sense is that Saddam and Syria, who are both restoring ties gradually, could seek to subvert Abdullah, who they view as a pawn of the US and Israel. If Abdullah is neutered, or forced to abdicate, Iraq and Syria could send troops into Jordan in the interest of "protecting" the Palestinians from Israel.
Now I'm also viewing this from the perspective that both Iraq and Syria are secular regimes (baathists) who see the downfall of the Arab Monarchies as their key to controlling the people, and thus the region. Both nations have been effectively isolated by their neighbors and Syria is desperately in need of Saddam's oil revenues to support their own economy.
But do I see Israel launching a war against either nation? Not really. But I do see Jordan as being the key nation to watch over the next several years. And I see Israel becoming militarily involved should a secular Palestinian government overthrown the Hashemites in Jordan.
Hawk |
