Sridhar, I agree with your points about the semiconductor industry. No question the number of products out there using chips has grown and will continue to grow. I guess we're sort of in disagreement as to where we are in the "DRAM cycle" and how MU is positioned to slug it out.
Do I think they'll go belly up? No. Even if what I'm seeing is right--a highly competitive, commodity industry with significant overcapacity at present for both its mature products and the upcoming generation; a questionable growth rate (and that opens up a whole other area regarding hardware, etc.) relative to players' ability to meet it; and a player, in MU, that has the right strategy for a commodity market (compete on cost), but one that I'd like to see hit with a little more fuel in the tanks--these guys ARE survivors.
As for Tom Kurlack, I'm not bearish because he's bullish (dealing strictly w/ the "analysis" aspect; short-term trading is a whole other story).
Briefing.com had a blurb on his near-term downgrade of ALTR in which he came out and said that XLNX was a better buy at this point w/ better products. And I agree. Put a gun to my head, make me choose between the two, and I'd choose XLNX. Doing it yesterday w/ earnings due out ATB or today given their report - really bad timing.
In terms of analysis - TK likes TXN and I've come to like TXN as I've learned more about it. But I don't like it for its DRAM business; I like just about everything BUT the DRAM business, even though I know they have some very good competition (and IMHO I'd feel most threatened by LU near-term). I'd assume TK likes their DRAM exposure and obviously if he likes DRAMs, he's got to like DSP's...then again...
I guess my whole point w/ TK comes down to the authoritative fallacy (or whatever it's called; been a while since my undergrad course in logic). Although, come to think of it, I may have to re-run the numbers on "TK's table-pounders v. 4 random people in Center City Philadelphia"; after TXN and INTC this week, TK's table-pounders may have actually passed Tony the panhandler <g>
Have a good weekend,
Tom |
