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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Larry S. who wrote (16813)4/11/2003 1:07:51 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78673
 
Larry,

I own BMY. I just went through their proxy and 2002 annual report. I don't think it is a great value right now. Assuming forward going ROE of 20% (they had much higher ROE before current slump and 20% ROE in 2002), the expected annual return is ~11%. Of course, if they get bought out or if ROE increases, this is a conservative estimate.

Regarding their numbers, since they restated everything, they should be "reasonably clean". :-/ I did not do very in-depth analysis, since I assumed they cleaned what they could and that the past is not very indicative of the future. Their FCF is negative in 2002, which is a concern, but for now I hold the stock.

I believe James Clarke had BMY in one of his accounts. Maybe he can comment. :-)

Jurgis
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