Joe,
The numbers of unit sales I gave in the post you quoted are very
modest, and should be quite achievable in the month left in this
quarter. This would add $70-100 million in revenues (depending
on how many are upgrades at 10% off, how many include future
upgrades at 20-30% more, etc.).
That's for one month. I think (opinion alert!) that the product
will have extremely good sales for the first month or two, then
taper off before building back up.
The following may sound like channel stuffing to some, but even if
hardly any customer buys the product, just filling the channel with
the minimal levels necessary for normal business will probably
account for half that amount. BorderManager has over 150 different
SKU's for combinations of different user levels, US vs. international
encryption, a couple different upgrade programs, and different
licensing programs. Major distributors will have to stock at
least couple of each.
In another post, you reference Salah's excellant analysis, and urge
everyone to follow the numbers and invest unemotionally. I agree
completely, and have followed his analyses with great interest for
months. I posted my message because his numbers for new product
sales seemed to based more on a guess (and a little misinformation)
than the rest of his analysis, which is solidly based in actual
results. I thought that a little solid information would help his
analysis. What happens to the numbers if you add $70-100 million in
revenue from new products, vs. the $30 million he estimated?
Jerry
>Jerry, with all due respect you said:>>I don't think its completely
>unrealistic to think that within a year sales of this product alone
>might be running at a billion $ annual rate. A LARGE portion of
>this goes straight to the bottom line.<<
>
>Everyone's entitiled to their opinion. I know you are sincere with
>this statement.
>
>Jerry, .... Never gonna happen. Never.
>
>Regards,
>
>Joe... |
