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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: bobby beara who wrote (16828)4/18/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: gregor   of 94695
 
bobby:

I have been timing the market and done pretty good at it. My returns have been equal to slightly below the averages but I have exposed myself to a fraction of the risk and volatility by doing so.

Last Oct I was on the sidelines and got in the second day on the 300 point pop . What I noticed however, at least for the growth funds, Fidelity Emerging Markets and Vanguard Explorer, the two I chose, was that they continued down for well over a month while the S & P snapped back quickly.

This kind of taught me a lesson. What I feel will happen the next time is that the market will sell off a quick 500 to 1000 points and then all of these timers will say , OK time to get back in. So a classic bear trap will have been executed. Then , the market will resume ( the difference this next time ) into a prolonged more traditional, bear market...so this next time, I am not jumping back into anything. I'm not even chancing bonds at this juncture. There too, I'll wait on the Feds to make a move...gregor
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