Excellent post. You clearly understand the factors driving this powerful trend. Think we all agree it's not the end of the world. Creative destruction, as Bob, pointed out is always an important stabilizing factor. We last saw a big picture like this during the secular deflation of the 1930s.
Some of the great fortunes of the 40s thru the 60s, even to the present day, began with insightful, patient, investors who withdrew or reduced their exposure to commodities, stocks (and businesses directly connected with them) during the debt fueled mania of the late 1920s which (like the long period leading up to the 2007 peak) set up the massive deflation that followed.
The global economy has survived secular deflations (as you know, secular simply means a trend which lasts multiple economic cycles), many times, over thousands of years. The fact it usually takes decades to set the pieces in place for one to occur is why so few are prepared to capitalize on them. We can blame it on the cold hard reality of the Bell Curve, the 80/20 principal or whatever frame of reference we chose. Nuff said.
Maybe this one is bigger than the 1930s? Maybe not. One thing's for sure. It will offer spectacular buying opportunities to those with the foresight to be holding enough cash to pile into the bargains which may not be seen again for generations to come!
Until it's time to pull that trigger? This ole coot is just getting his ducks in line to where I think they can thrive and "be fruitful" after this - still unfolding - secular storm is over. That storm IMO, has a ways to go. But it's an opportunity for the patient and savvy. Not a reason to panic except for those who stay stubbornly leveraged on the wrong side of this powerful primary trend.
If I may? Suspect there're more such savvy players posting on this thread than almost any other SI forum I read or contribute to! Wish I had more time to post, but we're very busy, outdoors, every Spring. So, I have to pick my spots. In any case...
Keep up the good work.
Regards,
Iso |
