to All... DSL: Many Questions, Few Answers
Tuesday, May 6, 1997
(Posted 9:15 p.m. ET)
By SALVATORE SALAMONE
Las Vegas- Network and IS managers looking to digital subscriber line (DSL) technology to meet the high-speed connectivity needs of their users may have to wait until next year to get some basic questions answered.
Very basic. Such as: Which carriers will offer services and in what time frames?
There are still several hurdles to be cleared before managers will have DSL services widely available to their users.
That's despite two significant developments at the NetWorld+Interop show here. One was a limited rollout by Pacific Bell in September of 384-kilobit-per-second symmetrical service bundled with Internet access for less than $200 a month. The other was an announcement that Copper Mountain Networks Inc. is licensing Intel technology to integrate into a series of DSL products.
In a roundtable discussion Monday on the DSL market sponsored by Telepath, CommWeek's sister publication, about the only thing participants could agree on was that DSL is coming and that the forces that will drive its adoption have changed during the last year.
But there was a wide range of opinion as to when DSL will be deployed on a wide scale and which flavor of the service will dominate; such questions largely mirror the state of the DSL equipment market (CommWeek, April 21). For an IS or network manager, the fractured market could further delay DSL's arrival.
Although the PacBell offering will give DSL more respectability, most of the panel's participants said they don't see serious DSL deployment picking up until next year. "Is it profitably deployable today? Will there be more than 10, 20, 30 thousand lines this year? No," said Benjamin Berry, vice president of marketing at equipment maker Amati Communications Corp., San Jose, Calif. "In 1997, there is no volume level to make a business case."
One factor that should give the market a boost is strong interest in DSL services from competitive local exchange carriers, according to participants. "The CLECs will be the driving force. They will be to the late 1990s what the ISPs were to the early 1990s," said David Helfrich, vice president of sales and marketing at Copper Mountain Networks, Palo Alto, Calif.
What will help the CLECs is the opportunity to get access to the copper lines in the local loop. Thanks to the Telecommunications Act of 1996, the incumbent local phone company must provide access to the lines. And, in most cases, the rates are considered relatively low if those lines are to be used for what is perceived as a high revenue-generating business such as DSL service. "You can buy the lines for $10 per month and sell services for $200 [as PacBell has proposed]," said Helfrich.
Such opportunities for the CLECs should give the phone companies the incentive to roll out DSL services. One factor that might hold them back is their operational service and support systems (OSS).
"You need to provision and bill for [DSL services]," said Edward Kennedy, vice president of marketing at Alcatel Data Networks, Ashburn, Va. "If we're talking about a small number of lines, that's OK. But if we are talking about ubiquitous service, you have to deal with the OSS issue."
Some think competition from the CLECs will force the local phone companies to address the shortcomings of their OSS systems. "The [incumbent phone companies] have to become more efficient," said Marc Zionts, senior vice president of DSL systems sales for Westell, Aurora, Ill. "They will need to automate to consider the task" of wide-scale DSL deployment.
Another potential obstacle to DSL deployment is the ability of the local loop to support DSL traffic. Specific issues include whether the telephone companies' cable plants are in adequate condition to carry the signal and if distances are within the limits required to maintain acceptable signal quality.
PacBell claims this isn't likely to be an issue. "Based on our technology field trials, we believe we will be able to serve about 70 percent of loops out of a [central office] without any conditioning of the loop," said Paula Reinman, director of product development at Pacific Bell Internet Services. |
