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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who started this subject	5/5/2003 5:14:07 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78660

For gamblers and other fearless people, I offer TCHC. Perhaps though the appropriate word for buyers might be foolish. Company again exceeds its earnings estimates and is selling at a low multiple of forward earnings. (p/e about 7) It's their fifth consecutive record quarter. We have here a small Florida insurance company (Being in Florida raises my suspicions immediately.) controlled by one family. The company is apparently in several ancillary businesses (e.g. tax preparation software) and seems to me to be doing strange things as regards franchising some of their insurance sellers. The stock's already had a good move. (a new high today at 14, up from lows this year at 4.25) I mention the stock here on the off chance this is a real company and real business - hard to believe though they could be pricing their insurance right and still be doing 33% ROE ($2 est. on $6 book value). But IF the performance is real and somewhat sustainable - then the stock might be undervalued. I have a very small position now which I intend to watch closely hoping I will escape before any bad news spills out. (Although my record of stepping aside other disasters is very poor) biz.yahoo.com

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