I'm shifting more into net-neutral. I pulled in the horns a bit and covered my MSFT trade for 8% on Friday, and covered my VSHP short for 16% this morning(though the timing seems a bit premature). Who says there's no money to be made on the already broken issues?
I'm letting Webvan run a bit before I consider shorting this. It always goes higher or lower than you expect. By the way, this isn't the traditional short. It's got plenty of cash and decent management. VSHP and MTHR (two previous shorts) are going to zero in the long term because of other economic reasons.
The trims aren't necessarily market calls. The "fourth quarter" is about to begin for my CFA studies, and I plan on taking some time off work to dedicate to my studies. I can't watch the market and it would probably be wise not to have such concerns on my mind before the test.
The big question is: can I keep my opportunistic self from establishing positions in the market?? I failed that bet before. I mean, if there's money on the table, why not take it?
I know I don't have PMC-Sierra or Immunex-like returns, but my core account is up about 60% for the year (70% was the yearly goal, but upped it to 10% a month). I don't play biotechs, and New Economy issues haven't dominated my portfolio, and there was a considerable amount of short positions in the account. The problem with an environment where everybody wins is that it's hard to set yourself apart from the crowd! Oh well. My time will come.
I also analyzed the evolution of my trades for the past 4-5 years, specifically with regard to the standard deviation of returns. From a very volatile first year when I enrolled in the school of hard knocks, the standard deviation has narrowed considerably. This year alone, it has been halved, but that has been accompanied by a higher rate of return.
I can say that this has only occurred because of self-examination. When trading, I'm becoming a firmer believer that your profits in the market are a direct function of your inner psychology. If you're doing poorly, you must seek out the psychological issues that are plaguing you. Because most likely, those attributes are being projected onto the market. As the legendary trader Ed Seykota once said, "Everybody gets what they want from the market." Tie that to your psychological tendencies, and you'll see that he's got something there.
Just some thoughts. |
