The Market-
The Market
Using, AXXel Knutson’sVTAR™
March 8th, 2004
[“Volume Trade Analysis Research”™]
“Manage the risk…the profits will take care of themselves”
“In this business, being right is not as important as making money…consistently, and one of primary tenets of the quest is the avoidance of the ‘obvious risk’”
Securities offered through
Cantella & Co., Inc.
Member NASD & SIPC
197 Mountainview Road – Warren – NJ – 07059
Email: axxel@cantella.com
Telephone: 908.647.5750 FAX: 908.842-9150
Cantella & Co., Inc. is registered in all states. Mr. Knutson’s registered states are listed in the disclaimer section. TradingWeapon™ VTAR™ [Volume Trade Analysis Research™] TradingWeapon & TradingEngine is Trade/service marked by and owned by Axxel Knutson.
© 1999-2003 all rights reserved, AXXel Knutson
[“Tradingweapon.com” is the business name for AXXel Knutson, who is a Registered Principal of an independently owned office of Supervisory Jurisdiction [OSJ] with Cantella & Co., Inc. TradingWeapon.com offers all of its securities business through Cantella & Co., Inc., a member of the NASD/SIPC. Cantella is a correspondent of Bear Stearns
Although we don’t normally mumble much about the market mainly because we don’t depend upon market trend to make investments, we know that most of our newsletter readers are somewhat paranoid about is the “market” going up or down failing to understand that even in the worst of markets SOME groups do very well indeed and we point to the housing and precious metals groups over the past major correction [note we said “correction” because all evidence points to humankind and the markets progressing to the upside. We remind our pessimistic friends that the overwhelming aura of the middle ages was the smell of feces.
We have come a long way.
The Short-term Market
The short-term VTAR™ numbers are bearish as the primary trend remains in a very definite up-trend. We have experienced some distribution over the past 6-8 weeks but the leadership in the market is very bullish indeed with over 700 stocks hitting new 52-week highs and only 13 making new lows. The volatility in the market is very, very low and this is unusual for such a consolidation and has, in part, kept us invested during the period and most accounts have benefited from this stance.
Nasdaq Composite Chart is courtesy of Celarstation.com
In terms of seasonal trends we are entering a period of some likely distribution but since we have already seen this occur in the early part of January and February, there may not be much left to distribute going forward even in spite of the need for many to make tax payments. Longer-term cycles - such as the Presidential cycle will continue to the bullish side for the remainder of the year.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart is courtesy of Celarstation.com
Summary:
There is some potential for a move to the downside from current levels for sure, but we have gone through very significant consolidations in stock prices-well, not us exactly since we avoided the tech crash and had a heavy concentration in housing and precious metals post 2000, but most stock did indeed crash in that period.
The jobs report on Friday was pathetic indeed, and much worse than even the most bearish of economists were expecting, yet the major stock indexes totally ignored the negative implications of the report with the S & P Mid-Cap Index making new highs [our preferred index by far] and the Russell 2000 also putting in a very good showing [see chart] and if the NASDAQ can muster a decent showing next week, that may be enough to once again turn the tide to the upside for the major indices as well.
Russell 2000 Chart is courtesy of Celarstation.com
If this chart if negative, I will wish for more such negative charts
Respectufully submitted,
Axxel Knutson
DISCLAIMER
Investment decisions should not be based solely on our proprietary indicators, which are intended as an adjunct to your additional analysis. Please accept these comments as market commentary. We do not intend these comments to replace detailed fundamental analysis. We urge you to accomplish that additional research via your contacts on the Internet or through a trusted financial advisor. If you want additional information on any of the securities discussed within, we will give it upon your request.
This report has been prepared from original sources and company data we believe to be reliable, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. This report is published solely for information purposes. It is not to be construed either as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or the provision of or an offer to provide investment services in any state where such an offer, solicitation or provision would be illegal. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to change without notice and we likely not update that change to you. The opinions expressed are that of AXXel Knutson and are not necessarily representative of Cantella & Co., Inc. Cantella & Co., Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Brokers with Cantella will likely have differing opinions.
The author of this report, Axxel Knutson, very rarely invests in any of the securities mentioned in these reports nor does his immediate family unless such securities are management companies of mutual funds or indirectly if such equities are included in mutual funds or index options. Equity investment involves risk of capital loss. We recommend that your portfolio be diversified by company size, industry group, and geographic region and by currency.
It should not be assumed that future selections will be profitable or will equal the performance of past selections. Securities listed herein illustrate selections made using proprietary indicators known as VTAR™ [Volume Trade Analysis Research™]. These names, VTAR™, TradingWeapon, www.TradingWeapon.com Trading Engine™, www.tradingengine.com ™, Volume Trade Analysis Research™, are service marks/trademarks of AXXel Knutson.
All recommendations and commentary are directed toward sophisticated, aggressive traders who have significant experience trading in a volatile market and who possess the financial resources to risk a loss of some or all of their invested funds. Commissions and, if you use margin, interest charges will lessen any return on investment. VTAR [Volume Trade Analysis Research] centers around the proprietary analysis of trading volume, price, general fundamental analysis, beta concerns, group rotation and detailed analysis of risk as it relates to entry and exit points in reasonably liquid stocks.
AXXel very rarely trades in the same stocks as clients or those written about in his newsletters or spoken about in media appearances with the exception of stock index options and mutual fund management companies. AXXel will disclose positions personally held in any such stocks in newsletters when published. Cantella & Co., Inc. Securities, its brokers and its officers may take and have positions although they receive no advance notice of new recommendations or changes in opinion. Those interested in additional information on any stocks discussed within may call at 908-647-5750 or email AXXel at axxel@cantella.com. We do not deal in BB stocks [with the exception of some ADR’s]. Refreshing, isn’t it?
Mr. Knutson is registered in the following states and additional states may be added upon a client relationship: CA, Fl, GA, HI, OH, KS, KY, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, OR, TX, VA and. WA. Other states may be temporarily registered or pending.
Stock charts provided through the good offices of www.clearstation.com. Our research can also be found at WWW.Multex.com and on www.ibes.com on a pay-per-report basis. AXXel's VTAR Newsletter-March 5, 2004 |
