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Technology Stocks : JDA Software

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To: Robert Knight who wrote (154)	9/5/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Trey Yon	Read Replies (1) of 371

Sword Swallowers Sector Update well gents it's been three weeks since my last post. And we're seeing one NASTY BEAR MARKET. I thought you might appreciate a round-up of how software sector is looking since my first warning flash back on July 31. Stocks I described on 7/31 as having already crashed: CA crashed on 7/22 off 17 points (that day) 7/31 was $33.25 NOW $29.25* this despite a failed rally on analyst upgrades. PSFT gapped down 4 points on 7/22. on 7/31 was $37.69 as of today after a Bullish Conf. call last night closed at $30.94 MANU Crashed from +$60.00 way back on 5/22 (Wow, what a precursor to a debacle) off 27 points that day! 7/31 was $21.75 NOW a veritable steal at $13.75* Technomax (TCNOF) CAD tools was one of the first areas to weaken Crashed on APRIL 8 off 12 points that day! Was $16.88 on 7/31 NOW trades at $10.13 Parametric (PMTC) more CAD software 7/31 was $13.63 NOW $9.75 Here are the stocks I described on 7/31 as ABOUT to CRASH ITWO 7/31 was $24.38 NOW $$14.09 BAANF (still hasn't snapped, but it's rolling over nicely) 7/31 was $39.75 NOW $30.50 HBOC 7/31 was $29.47 NOW $25 (holding up with a lot of institutional buying) MMGR 7/31 WAS $27.63 NOW $17.88 (MMGR was down to $12 but got 2 upgrades to Strong Buy this week) (27 to 12 made my August!) LASTLY, our beloved JDAS after dropping 6 points on 7/31 to close at $17.75 stands tonight at a 52 week low of $11.00 Could you have seen it coming? Well YES, (hindsights always 20/20 <gr>) Go BACK to the chart and take note of May 7 3.8 mill shares changed hands, June 5 2.7 mill shares, lastly 2 million shares on June 29 a SELLING CLIMAX on a peak. THERE IS A VALUABLE LESSON on this chart! JDAS was breaking down months prior to the landslide. But, if you try to run with these big Momentum players like Pilgrim Baxter sometimes you get your head handed to you. Gary & Christine TAKE NO Prisoners! A few general comments: The smaller stocks have gotten hurt worst and probably will continue to suffer. Maybe CA & PSFT are worth a nibble here. As for JDA I'm still on the sidelines waiting for coach to blow the whistle. He's been looking my way. * indicates 52 week low (all prices are daily closing)

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