<<I'd say there is no way AIO sales will remain constant. The iMac will bite into the AIO big time. On the other hand I'd put a bit more of a mild increase on PB sales. I don't think Apple will post revenues above $1,600mill, and I'd put my money in $1450-1550mill as the likely range...>>
Let's quantify! How much will AIO sales be hurt by iMac? Unit sales were 120,000 last quarter. This quarter we have the iMac but we also have more intense demand from the education sector.
In the previous quarter, the purchasers of those 120,000 units must surely have known about the iMac--including the August, pre-school release date--and summarily decided to go for the AIO anyway. AAPL has tried their best to differentiate the two products enough to prevent significant canabalization.
First, you can get AIO at a faster processor speed than the iMac (266, and did the 300 ever come out?). Second, of course, it has a floppy drive. Third, it has expansion capabilities (3 PCI slots, more memory expansion, SCSI). The SCSI element is important for schools not wanting to throw away all their old peripherals (the same could be said about ADB). Schools are backward-looking. They save as much money as they can on a tight budget, and they only make major technology switches when they are absolutely forced to do so. I don't see school districts jumping on the new-technology bandwagon quite as fast as you suggest. Finally, reports about certain elements of flimsiness in iMac construction (CD-ROM drive especially) might scare away schools thinking about their frenzied 8-year-old kids manhandling the machines. If AIO sales were ripped in half because of the iMac, I think Apple would be as surprised as I would be. They continue to assert that the AIO is a "different" product and will not be discontinued because of the iMac.
So, will we have 100,000? 80,000? 50,000?
A drop to 50,000 would make sense based on your revenue estimate, as it would take the $1,640 figure down to $1,542. However, that doesn't take into account your idea that Powerbook sales will be higher than my 120,000 projected.
Therefore, you must either think that 50,000 (a 58% drop quarter-to-quarter) is too many AIO units to ship or there is some other factor you disagree with.
Do you strongly disagree with the reports suggesting 400,000 iMacs? If so, what is your projection and why?
I'm not trying to interrogate, I just think there is higher utility to quantifying specific expectations.
Andrew |
