n today's Political Diary:
* How to End Gridlock on Immigration
* Ralph Discovers Sin
* Rhode Island Miracle
* Christian, Go Home (Quote of the Day I)
* With Friends Like These... (Quote of the Day II)
* Jeb Bush Meets Dropouts Halfway
Bordering on Sanity
Congressional supporters of a fence across our southern border designed to block illegal crossings are confronting some cold, hard realities as they prepare to negotiate a compromise between competing House and Senate bills on immigration. Nearly half of the 11 million illegal aliens now in the United States originally entered the country legally, and then simply stayed.
A study by the Pew Hispanic Center says 45% of America's illegal alien population crossed into the U.S. at 300 points of entry with legal border crossing cards or visas valid for temporary stays to conduct business or tourism. "The U.S. government currently has no means of determining whether all the foreign nationals admitted for temporary stays actually leave the country," according to the Pew study. "There is no high-tech solution to the problem," Michael Cutler, a former senior federal border enforcement agent, told the Washington Times. The only alternative is the immensely difficult work of tracking down illegals who overstay their visas one by one.
That's why many supporters of a border fence are slowly warming to an idea promoted by Rep. Mike Pence, head of the conservative House Republican Study Committee. He would combine border enforcement with a guest-worker program that would require current illegal aliens to visit privately-run employment placement centers in their home countries if they wished to turn themselves into legal guest workers. Mr. Pence briefed President Bush and Vice President Cheney yesterday on his plan, and said they appeared "intrigued." There's also reportedly been movement on the Senate side from key players like Arlen Specter, John McCain and Ted Kennedy, potentially overcoming the House's effective boycott so far of reconciliation talks.
Clearly a properly designed guest-worker program has promise. As the Bracero program for agricultural workers expanded in the 1950s, arrests of illegal aliens fell from 885,000 in 1953 to a low of 45,000 in 1959. After the Bracero program ended in 1964, apprehensions increased from 87,000 to 876,000 in 1976. They have remained at roughly that level or higher ever since.
The way to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the country is to create a system that brings them out of the shadows, makes it harder for employers to continue to hire those who don't have legal documents and discourages additional people from attempting the dangerous border crossings in our southern deserts.
-- John Fund
Thinning Reed
Last Thursday, the Senate Indian Affairs Committee issued its final report on the infamous Jack Abramoff lobbying-related scam that bilked six Indian tribes of an astonishing $66 million. One of the casualties was Ralph Reed, the former Christian Coalition director who now is seeking election in his own right as a candidate for lieutenant governor of Georgia.
The committee's report includes unflattering details of Mr. Reed's financial dealings with Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to various felonies. Abramoff appears to have funneled $4 million in fees from the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians to Mr. Reed's consulting firm, Century Strategies. This money flowed through a number of conduits, one of them being Americans For Tax Reform, the group run by influential conservative political organizer Grover Norquist.
Nell Rogers, a planner for the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians, testified before the Committee that Abramoff indicated the use of financial conduits was necessary "to accommodate Mr. Reed's political concerns." Apparently that's because Mr. Reed was promoting a moral stand against gambling while Mr. Abramoff's clients were providing the money only because they wanted to nix any potential competition to their own casinos.
Mr. Reed has reiterated his claim that he was misled by Abramoff into believing the money paid to Century Strategies had not come from gaming interests. Mr. Reed also strained to play up the bright side of the Committee's findings: "The report confirms that I have not been accused of any wrongdoing."
Will this be enough to persuade Georgia Republicans, who go to the polls in just over three weeks to decide Mr. Reed's fate? A new poll taken over the weekend (after news broke of the Committee's report) showed Mr. Reed's lead over his primary opponent, Casey Cagle, shrinking to a mere three points, 44-41, down from a six-point lead in May. Also of concern: Nearly half (47%) of Republicans surveyed in the poll have an unfavorable opinion of Mr. Reed.
We'll know on July 18 whether Mr. Reed will survive his first run for elective office, or whether the sticky web spun by Jack Abramoff will claim another victim.
-- Tom Bevan, executive editor of RealClearPolitics.com
Rhode Island's Supply-Side Democrats
Last week brought good news for Rhode Island Republican Gov. Donald L. Carcieri. A new poll by Rhode Island College found him involved in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty. Rhode Island is one of the most liberal states in the country, so Mr. Carcieri might well consider himself lucky to be leading Mr. Fogarty 44% to 39%, though the difference is smaller than the poll's margin of error.
Even better news, in the closing days of the legislature, his rival Democrats delivered a surprisingly good budget. It includes a cut in the top income tax rate, aimed at stemming the flow of high-income folks to other states. It also includes a reduction in the state's car tax and slows the rise in property tax assessments. Also included in the new budget is a fix for a welfare provision that had previously allowed people who exhausted their benefits in other states to move to Rhode Island and become eligible all over again. For years, Rhode Island lost jobs and high earners to nearby Massachusetts, while importing welfare recipients. That may now change.
The boldest reform, however, reworks the state's health insurance regulations. Currently, health insurance is required to cover chiropractic and other esoteric forms of care. These mandates drive up the cost of health insurance, making it harder for small businesses to offer their employees health benefits. Under new rules, small businesses will soon be able to buy "stripped down" health insurance that is free of many of the costly mandates, with an estimated savings of 25%.
Had Republicans shown such programmatic boldness in Washington, they might not be sweating out re-election now. Yet Rhode Island's reforms emerged from a legislature controlled by Democrats, two of whose budgets the GOP governor had previously vetoed. Gov. Carcieri still has a tough race ahead, but he now finds himself in a strong position to sell the Democrats' handiwork to his GOP voters. Meanwhile, Democrats face an uphill battle to explain to their own constituents why they cut taxes for the rich and reduced welfare benefits for the poor. Admitted Democratic State Sen. Harold Metts of Providence: The tax cut "is going to be a hard seller for us."
-- Brendan Miniter
Quote of the Day I
"It's hard to believe that [former Christian Coalition leader Ralph] Reed, whose skill at mixing religion and politics made him a Time cover-boy 11 years ago at age 33, could have been duped by Abramoff. Reed's campaign to become lieutenant governor of Georgia is still thriving, but let's see what happens when the evangelicals he once served absorb the evidence in the Senate report. It's damning. It depicts an enterprise that used religious voters as marks: Lobbyists effortlessly twisted them to achieve goals sometimes directly at odds with their beliefs. They were punk'd... The Reed story confirms what many devout Christians have argued since conservative social activists became a force in national politics in the 1970s: Engaging in worldly political maneuvering is ultimately debasing" -- Slate.com's chief political correspondent John Dickerson.
Quote of the Day II
"There was little or no apparent 'bounce' due specifically to Zarqawi's killing, [but] the upward trend in approval began with President Bush's more active engagement with immigration following his May 15 speech, and that trend has been further supported by Zarqawi and Bush's trips. If my claim is correct, that Bush's immigration position is in fact widely supported by the public (contra the Republican House leadership's position) and that that fact coupled with Bush's leadership on the issue was the stimulus for his improved ratings, then the House leadership's decision to abandon the President on this issue presents new problems for the White House" -- University of Wisconsin political scientist and polling expert Charles Franklin, writing on President Bush's approval ratings at politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com.
Jeb Bush Majors in School Reform
Everyone knows that one reason 50% of students drop out of high school in many urban districts is that they find the subject matter irrelevant or boring. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush hopes to change that now that he has put his signature to a new law that requires high school students to declare majors much as college students do.
"Not all students are the same," the governor told a group of high schoolers earlier this month at a bill-signing ceremony. "Some struggle with certain subjects while others excel. Our education system should not be a one-size-fits-all system for every student, but it should adapt to meet the needs of each student."
While Florida students will still have to take a core curriculum of English and math, they will be encouraged to choose between college preparation courses or a vocational field such as auto repair or nursing. The hope is that students will be encouraged to try classes that will maintain their interest and also allow them to develop skills so they can earn some money outside of class towards their future goals.
Students interviewed by local Florida TV stations liked the concept with one glaring exception. The Bush bill also will require a fourth year of math for all high school students. One student said: "The issue with that isn't boredom. A fourth year of math will be sheer torture." Nonetheless, the student said he would take it because his school will now offer an advanced carpentry class, for which math skills might be useful.
-- John Fund |
