The Friday Line: Gingrich, Gore and Another Early Look at 2008
The Fix blog
Since The Fix started listing the five Democrats and five Republicans most likely to win their party's presidential nomination in 2008, we've struggled with how to handle two potential candidates -- former vice president Al Gore and former House speaker Newt Gingrich.
There are a number of similarities between the two men. Both began their political careers at young ages and were tagged as rising stars. Both achieved substantial early success and went on to reach the verge of great triumph before being brought low and disappearing from politics. And now both are back in public life and being urged by elements from within their respective parties to run for national office.
To date, Gingrich has shown more interest in a potential run than Gore, but neither has ruled out a bid. Until now we have left both men off the Friday Line, but that changes this month.
Remember: The Friday Line is a snapshot in time of where the presidential field stands. So, if your favorite candidate has either dropped off or never made it on -- never fear! There's plenty of time between now and January 2008 when we will all have a clearer picture of the contest. Use the comments section below to keep this conversation going.
The candidates are ranked alphabetically. We won't start ranking them by their chances to win the nomination until after the 2006 midterms. To the Line!
THE DEMOCRATS
Evan Bayh: We were intrigued to read in the Des Moines Register this week that Bayh is the only 2008 Democrat other than Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack who has political staff on the ground in the Hawkeye State. We've said all along that Bayh's methodological approach to the nominating process will eventually pay dividends. At some point, however, Bayh needs to show that he is more than just a process candidate (Midwesterner, former governor of a red state) and that he can energize Democratic base voters. (Read The Fix's Bayh interview.)
Hillary Rodham Clinton: Clinton's hiring of Peter Daou and Jesse Berney -- two prominent liberal bloggers -- is yet more evidence that she is readying for a 2008 candidacy. Clinton's problems with liberals over the Iraq war aren't going away, and her team needs to figure out a way to placate the left before the Iowa caucuses where anti-war sentiment is sure to run high. We see more holes in Clinton's candidacy now than we did a year ago, but without Gore in the race she is still the odds-on frontrunner.
John Edwards: No Democrat had a better month than Edwards. His first place showing in the Des Moines Register poll of likely caucus goers shows that Edwards retains considerable good will in the state after his second-place finish in the 2005 caucuses. We're still not convinced Edwards can turn on the spigot early next year and raise the $10+ million needed to keep him competitive with the lead pack, but the poll goes a long way to keeping him relevant between now and then. (Read The Fix's Edwards interview.)
Al Gore: Why add Gore now? Because when we talk to strategists for every other candidate considering the race, one of the first questions they ask is: "What do you hear about Gore?" Talk to former aides and allies of the vice president and you get totally divergent responses. Some believe he will only run if drafted into the race in its latter stages; others are convinced that if Hillary Clinton looks like a winner, Gore will run in order to keep the party from moving more towards the ideological middle. Here's a tidbit that makes us think that Gore might be seriously considering a bid: He not only did an automated call for Democrats in the California 50th special election earlier this month, but he also reached out to Democrat Francine Busby following her defeat in that race. We won't rehash the arguments for and against a Gore candidacy; suffice to say that if he gets in, Gore would have to be considered the co-favorite for the nomination along with Clinton. And what an epic clash it would be.
Mark Warner: Ahead of the 2006 elections, Warner is running a different type of race compared with other candidates listed here. He is using his Forward Together PAC to prove his fundraising ability and bolster his Democratic bona fides. Forward Together has raised an impressive $7 million since last July, and Warner has sprinkled donations to candidates and party committees all over the country. As a candidate he remains a work in progress. More so than any other candidate in the field, though, we get a sense from Warner that he really wants the nomination and is willing to do whatever he needs to do to get it. Don't underestimate a hungry candidate.
THE REPUBLICANS
George Allen: Allen's reelection race against former Navy Secretary James Webb (D) carries both potential and peril for the Virginia Republican's White House aspirations. First, the peril: At best Allen wins the race but is unable to travel to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina for the kind of quality time those states demand from presidential candidates. At worst, Allen loses to Webb and never makes the presidential starting gate. Now, the potential: The race between Allen and Webb is already drawing national attention and will only get more high-profile from here on out. Allen will have the opportunity to polish his skills and work out any kinks in his stump style and, should he win convincingly, he can make the argument that he has a blueprint to beat back Democratic attacks on the war in Iraq. (Read The Fix's Allen interview.)
Newt Gingrich: In the last twelve years Gingrich has gone from prophet to pariah to prophet (again). If he decides to run -- and we think he will -- Gingrich has an enviable combination of attributes: He gives a great speech, has national name recognition, and has connections with grassroots leaders and powers within the donor community. A veritable one-man ideas factory, Gingrich has twice as many policy ideas as any other Republican in the field. A Gingrich campaign would not be without problems, however, including his two divorces, which might not sit well with some conservative Republican voters.
Mike Huckabee: The Arkansas governor's presidential campaign showed signs of life this month with the hiring of Eric Woolson -- a veteran of the Bush campaign in Iowa -- to handle his political affairs in the Hawkeye State. Huckabee will also make his eighth trip into the state next week. His heavy focus on Iowa makes good strategic sense as social conservatives comprise a significant voting bloc of the Republican caucus vote. The risk with Huckabee's strategy is that if he doesn't surprise in Iowa, he will have little chance to build momentum in New Hampshire where fiscally conservative voters dominate. (Read The Fix's Huckabee interview.)
John McCain: Any regular reader of The Fix knows that we continue to be impressed by how well McCain and his advisers are playing the inside game. Every day that goes by without a clear "establishment" candidate running in opposition to him is a day that the Arizona senator, his staff or his surrogates are working to build bridges with individuals and groups who opposed him in 2000. The upcoming midterm elections will be a telling indication of whether McCain can make a reasonable case as the institutional candidate. If Republicans suffer major losses at the House and Senate level, it will open a lot of doors for McCain among folks who believe he is their best -- and only -- chance to hold the White House in 2008.
Mitt Romney: The recent rollout of Romney's Iowa team was impressive both in the depth and quality of people the Massachusetts governor has recruited to his cause. And we've been assured that there are plenty more influential Iowans with Romney who didn't feel comfortable going public just yet. Like Warner, Romney is hungry and is working at multiple levels to shore up support. With Allen tied up in his reelection race, Romney has solidified his spot as the most likely McCain alternative. We tend to believe the potential negative effect of Romney's Mormon faith is overblown, but his multiple past positions on abortion are not drawing nearly the focus now that they will in the coming 18 months. Still, we've been impressed by Romney's tacit recognition of his potential flaws and diligence in addressing them.
Read The Fix's last Friday Line installment on the 2008 presidential race.
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