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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1717)	3/15/2001 9:18:03 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	of 23153

Dow and S&P year-end targets way too bullish imho. The next shoe is starting to drop. Heard a good quote on CNBC tonight talking about why the DOW and S&P may falter here. It's not that earnings are all that bad, but... When techs were running the PE's on the old economy stocks seemed cheap by comparison. Now that techs have gone down people are comparing the PE's to the growth rates and saying many of these issues are probably overvalued. This quarter and the next will be key. If "old" economy stocks start to talk about the consumer spending less and guiding down existing estimates then Dow 8000 will be a no-brainer before the end of the year. I have yet to find one major brokerage house that doesn't have targets of 11400+ Dow and 1500+ for the S&P. Doesn't anyone find this a little unusual? Quite a few have target in 12500-13,000 and 1,600+ range respectively. Greed. Don't they ever learn? Just like techs last year way too much optimism in Greenspan and the US economy. But I guess they need some story to pump to keep their clients in equities. OT - >Drink up.< Which beer stock do you recommend? I'll get back to you in 6 months on that one. This fall we either re-test any lows made during the spring...or...we make new one's. I have a friend who bought Cisco at 80 and is planning on holding "for the long term". It might be 5+ years before Cisco get's back there. People will wait it out for 6-12 months. At 18 months they start to get really worried imho. Unless the economy does a v-shaped turnaround this fall could have some nasty tax selling.

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