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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Earlie who wrote (171930)	6/11/2002 5:44:45 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Earlie -- I do not see IBM pulling a Nortel; their financial position does not look THAT bad to me as they have wisely sold off assets (manufacturing assets to the EMS companies; their global network to AT&T; a bunch of their optical stuff to JDSU; the disk business most recently) at high prices while Nortel was busy collecting assets at even higher prices. So while the liquidity is not great, and while they will likely have to give up on the stock buyback program soon to shore up the balance sheet and their retirement benefits, I personally don't see a liquidity crisis there (and I'm pretty good at seeing liquidity crises; Haley Joel Osment sees dead people, I see dead balance sheets <g>). On ACF, I really don't know what to expect tomorrow. As I have discussed w/ Patron, ACF doesn't work (IMO) over any long period of time as they are effectively "insuring" (by keeping the D&E tranches) correlated risk. One day (and I don't know when) the correlations will go to 1 and ACF equity will cease to exist. Like Conseco, Mutual Risk Management and Providian before them, like Metris now, and like MBIA and Ambak to come. I will patiently wait for that day. (and that day is not likely to be tomorrow. i posted a link to Tom Brown's ACF comments back in April earlier today. i noted at the time (in April) that it was way bad mojo for Brown to say sh8t like "bears are wrong"; "I'm gonna make a ton of money" in print; and its probably bad mojo for me to be making fun of him today. so blame me if the stock goes up tomorrow -- its OK, as Freep already blames me for all Red Sox defeats <g>) It seemed from your post to LLCF/DAK that you were starting to look around the biotechs/drugs. Please keep us updated. My small longs are QLTI, Imclone, and Incyte so far and I am way under-water on all of them and feeling quite silly for being "early". Cheers

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