Paul, good to know you are ready to pick up some VICL. There are many ways to "value" a company, over the years I found discount to cash with no debt, tolerable burn rate are usually the most reliable. Other things like projected P/E, growth, even ROE are not very reliable, those are cookable if they want. Enron, WCOM all delivered good "numbers" before bankruptcy, even fooled most of the analysts and fund managers.
I will stick with my discount to cash approach, the 30% discount to cash stocks may not be available again. In the late 90's I was only able to find PHTN at cash around $3 during semi slump 98. It went up and never look back, eventually got $90 in 18 months. I bought SINA at $1.5 a year ago, it never look back, trading at $18 now. You already saw those stocks are disappearing (price up near or above cash), it is the safest to load up if one thinks the current rally is a little too fast. |
