From Rumordude. P/C=.4, -- Thu Apr 19, 10:31am PDT put/call ratio
The CBOE put/call ratio is getting me a bit nervous here. Dipping cloes to 0.4 range. That is opposite extreme from just 2 weeks ago. If you are trading, this is your first warning sign to start taking some off the table. DJI is still stuck in an inside pattern, while NDX had a small breakout. Can't read too much into that breakout yet. I would not add positions at this point but a run to NDX 2000 is very likely. none.
[madtrader]
Thu Apr 19, 10:14am PDT $NDX.X
SEBL
LIft off time again. As NDX trades above yesterday's high on the strength of SEBL. long QQQ.
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[madtrader]
Thu Apr 19, 9:47am PDT $DJI
$NDX.X
Inside day thus far. With a few fireworks in second tier names, for the most part we are just stuck in a range. ORCL, MSFT and SEBL continue with their breakout. We have plenty of stocks forming the inverted head and shoulders pattern right now. Some are just plain "V" shaped. Some are just hard to tell. Regardless which catagory they fall under, they are all running into some strong resistance. Should the MSFT earnings provide another life, these names could have another big run. As institutional money flow back into the mega and large cap names, the second and third tier stocks will surely get a lift (people will get comfortable with risk fast after seeing some stunning gains, and they will be more speculative). Storage names looking interesting again are EMC,VRTS and MCDT. Communication chip names like BRCM, VTSS,PMCS and AMCC are near their resistance. But one name that get me most interested is still MSFT. The 72 resistance/neckline is getting close. none.
[RumorDude]
Thu Apr 19, 8:10am PDT INKT
Wow, it really did come up to fill that gap like we thought. Cutting 1/2 of what's left: we have 1/4 the original position from yesterday.
[RumorDude]
Thu Apr 19, 7:46am PDT QQQ
TQNT
Triquint releases today, alongsize XLNX. Speculating they will beat $0.14. Rotating on QQQ calls. Keepin things relatively small here. Long TQNT position, look for exit tomorrow. Buy to open May 47 calls
[RumorDude]
Thu Apr 19, 7:22am PDT SEBL
AMD
NOK
EMC
QQQ
INKT
Since things seem to be pulling back a little bit and we've got handsome profits on some of these, we're trimming today though we expect stuff could pick up some team toward sthe end of the day. We still have plenty of long positions left but why not lock in profits when things are overbought? Sell to close Apr 35 SEBL calls, Sell to close Apr 27.5 AMD calls, sell long AMD, sell long NOK, sell long EMC, sell to close QQQ Apr 43 calls, buy to close Apr 44 calls, sell 1/2 INKT position from yesterday
[RumorDude]
Thu Apr 19, 7:20am PDT AFCE
Got a little bump this morning so we took advantage of it to cut the position down like we said we would Sold 3/5 AFCE position
[madtrader]
Wed Apr 18, 11:45pm PDT bull or bear?
Having predicted that the Fed would have cut rates and cut aggressively last November, I was all to happy to load up the boat when Greenspan follow through my thinking in early January. After all, I "was" right. My confidence of a major bottom was set in place in January was so high I fell right into another bear trap. I suffered my single biggest loss then. Even since then, I learned the lesson of not jumping the gun. With all the excitement of the "surprise" rate cut today, there are plenty of people calling for the end of the bear market. I will not try to determine whether we are out of a bear market here. For that matter, there are enough people arguing over the very definition of a bear market (talking about denial). Since the peak of all the major indices a year ago, the Nasdaq has had 11 of the best percentage gain days, yet none of them have been able to reverse the trend. With the long down trend that is a year old now, there is plenty of work ahead for true trend reversal. With this in mind, I looked at the weekly trends so I can keep things in perspective. On the weekly chart, the most recent high for Nasdaq was back in January. In order to reverse this weekly trend, Nasdaq Comp has to fight it's way back above 2900. For NDX, it is around 2800. In the case of NDX, that would make it almost 100% gain from the lows 2 weeks ago. Certainly possible, but with this one rally? Seems a bit of a stretch to me. Is it possible down the road? My tell is the SOX index. 2 weeks ago, SOX made a weekly lower low on price, yet managed a higher low in stochastics. A bullish divergence. Which indicates a massive reversal move is in the cards. Since we are still at the beginning stage of this move, the higher high breakout requirement of 765 doesn't seem all that impossible. So if the SOX can eventually make a higher high, it should certainly lead the way for NDX. My other clue is MSFT. MSFT is in the process of forming a massive invert head and shoulders pattern (on weekly chart). The neckline is around 72, a break out of 72 should eventually take this stock back to 100 range. Of all the mega-cap tech stocks, this is also the first one to trade above it's 200 day moving average. Another bullish developement. Since MSFT is the large component of NDX and Nasdaq Comp, it will probably the single most important stock to watch if we are looking for that weekly higher high reading. I have noted for a few weeks now that this is the one decision stock for the confused or scared. Which is why it is under massive institutional accumulation. With today's move, this stock has effectively reverse the long downtrend that started in January of 2000. Buy on pull back would be my suggestion here. So do we have a new bull market? Not yet. If you can't wait, MSFT would be the vehicle to play. none.
[RumorDude]
Wed Apr 18, 11:06pm PDT ERICY
NOK
Ericcson, like Nokia, will be reporting on Friday. ERICY which has been having huge internal problems (and political ones to make it worse) is apparently working out a deal with SNE to jointly develop cell phones to combat the NOK's of the world. This could be a great move for an otherwise hurting company. Separately, many Japanese carriers are looking to expand out from japan, most notably NTT Docomo with it's investments in KPN and AT&T. Cultural issues aside, one of the things they will need to be successful is collaboration with the hardware manufacturers to continue to build better products. With Japanese electronics being amongst the top in their class, this could definitely result in new products and services a cell phone manufacturer alone could not do... We'll be watching! none.
[RumorDude]
Wed Apr 18, 11:01pm PDT QQQ
Clearly our original comments on the bullish QQQ formation did not factor in a fed rate cut, but the end effect was the same. With not as horrible as we thought earnings after hours, QQQ looks poised to gap up again in the morning, to around 47 based on after hours activity. Today's move by the fed should be viewed as a bottom setting piece. It is now very likely we will revisit south of 40 or 42 barring any tragic events in the short term future. We expect some consolidation possibly friday (options expiration) or monday - as things are heading towards overbought. One thing is for sure: now is not a good time to be short. A more recent QQQ chart shows it is possible for there to be some resistance around 47.5, followed by the lower 50's - but consolidation is bound to happen soon.
Lastly, I went back to read an old article we wrote on QQQ beginning to form a base. On Mar 28th, i predicted QQQ at 47-48 "in two to three weeks", which now would fall into. Of course, action in between sure didn't look that way (and we didn't trade that way either after breaking down further). Gosh those charts don't lie! |
