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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (1722)	12/2/1997 12:36:00 AM
From: Stingray	Read Replies (3) of 5676

Now that we've had another strong move upwards what do you see ahead? I think that the table is being laid and it will soon be time for the bears to feast as long as said bears don't get too impatient, this market seems to be have nine lives but may be on its ninth by now. When buying puts you can get 4x the time for only 2x the price, which is a fair price if you believe in random walks, but a bargain if you believe that once the market breaks the downward momentum will grow. I'm looking at puts with 12 month fuses, I almost got what I was looking for earlier this year but the VGEMJs I wanted didn't quite hit my target price but they are getting close again and I think I might succeed in picking them up this time. The leader of the Dow these days is of all things AT+T, now trading at 4 times book value and 20 times earnings, even though it's revenues for the first 9 months of this year are 26% lower than the same period last year. I've been waiting for some GE puts to hit my price target (they are getting close). I picked GE because it is both overpriced and non-volatile and would follow the market if it went down hard but T might be even better as a non-volatile and overpriced stock.

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