Art,
A fair market value for AXC could be as high as $41.00.
One way that I've run across for computing the fair market value of a stock is to take the % earnings increase expected times the expected eps for the year. If for AXC: FY96 eps (actual): $0.33; FY97 eps (est.): $0.57; FY98 esp (est.): $1.05. So 97 earnings over 96 earnings represents a 72% increase; 98 over 97 is 84%. There is no longer-term
(five-year) average growth rate established yet. This may be more like
20% or so, for a company digging out from the throes of death...as AXC
has done.
I doubt that AXC will really see $41.00, though, any time soon based on the declining sentiment among individual and institutional holders, and the yet relatively unproven eps track record of this (turnaround)
company. IMHO it will take a few quarters of AXC meeting and - even better - beating the analysts quarterly expectations for this stock to really have a chance at seeing anything near $41.00. If, however, AXC does indeed deliver, even without KM, the potential is definitly there - look out! A more conservative value may be the 5-year growth rate times annual eps, once this growth rate gets established. BTW, I believe all of my numbers are correct, or near enough at least to establish the point...
Anyone know when the 10-K will be put on sec.gov or axc.com?
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