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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Rangu Ranganathan who wrote (17250)9/13/1997 7:28:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana   of 42771
 
Hello Rangu, upgrading NW 3.x to NW 4.x is the key to NOVL's success.
If they can pull it off, then hats off to them.
However, I doubt they will be able to do that. Why ?

First, MOEB will be introduced next year....in my opinion that is too late. NT 5.0 is available in beta today and will start shipping same time next year at the same time as MOEB. Who do you think will win the battle ? I think MSFT. The momentum is clearly in MSFT's favour and does not look like diminishing anytime soon.

Windows NT is making headlines on users desktops. Windows 95/97 is making headlines in the same way. Office 97 is doing the same and the slow death of Corel is proving that in more ways than one.
Intranet/Internet products are still too small to generate enough sales for NOVL. BorderManager may be selling but how many units ?
100,200... 1,000 ? What is NOVL's expectation ?

Our company has well over 400 NW servers and we have not had BorderManager come in for for evaluation or otherwise. Why not ?
Because it requires IntraNetWare. Thats why. We have a firewall set up as any other large company but we run of the UNIX platform.

This dependency on NetWare is Novel's major problem. They have to get away from relying on one O/S. What they should do is develop for other O/S such as NT and UNIX. Only then will their product gain a substanial foothold.

Forget NOVL as a company. Their only solution is to merge with a more reputable company. Our Chief does not have a chance...he is already on the wrong course...building a new $300 million complex, flying in corporate jets and driving around in hammer vehicles.

Consider what an individual would do in their household if they were faced with declining income and had had $1 million in the bank. They would probably take a vacation first and come back to face the problems later. I think our Chief is doing just that. To forget his problems which he knows exist, he's spending like crazy. Only problem is.....Novell that one great established company is now being looked as something totally different....one which may or may not survive in one year. Question is, how much value do you give to such a company excluding their cash hoard of $1 billion ?

As one article said, Eric may take NOVL stock price to $15 but will he be able to keep it ther. I for one will not put my money on him. I'm out on the next rally to $13 and that that is all it will be...a technical rally. Eric is not the right man for the job.

NOVL has to sell out while the times are good.
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