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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Shack who wrote (172606)6/13/2002 7:39:48 PM
From: mishedlo   of 436258
 
It doesn't exactly work that way but it is indeed strange.
Last month (looking forward) there were tons of puts and no calls so I expected a rally this month as you know.

BUT....
Bears have been very clever, unwinding their puts on the way down this month (instead of sitting in them like a deer in headlights). In the meantime call buyers came out the wazoo with all the "bargains".

Bears played this one correctly this month, BY BEING CAUTIOUS AND TAKING PROFITS. The calls built up and voila. Here we are.

The reason why I say it doesnt exactly work that way is because at each incremental strike down, more hedging is required to cover the puts. If they could get us to 31 it would be 150K worth of options not 50K.

But you are correct in that the difference between 30 and 31 might not be worth the trouble, especially since they need to drop MSFT.

A muted bounce to 30?

M
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