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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Les H who wrote (172376)	6/13/2002 9:24:04 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Poor Ken Fisher -- guy actually made a good call being largely out of the market for last 18-24 months and now he's going and ruining it. I always thought his main investing philosophy was to fade the consensus of the strategists. I often looked forward to that column in Forbes, where he would lay out where all the strategists were, than look for the "holes" in the forecasts (i.e. what was a result that no strategists were looking for) and then make that his market prediction. With every strategist in the world looking for either up a little or up a lot (i.e. Harpo saying we're 20% undervalued; moron Galvin probably is still looking for Nas 5000) I can't really figure out why he has abandoned this very successful fading strategy and gone long. Maybe its this... "In the short term, supply is heavily constricted, tied as it is to the regulatory processes associated with its creation. " He's talking about the "supply" of stock. And if Mr. Fisher thinks "supply" of stock is "constrained", then he is much more of a moron than I ever gave him credit for and I will tend to agree with him that any and all success he has ever had has been due strictly to blind squirrel luck. Equity supply is friggin' everywhere. T just did a $2 billion deal. NT just did a $1 billion deal. There are smaller but still large secondaries going off every day. There are billions of convert deals. Insiders are selling shares at historically high rates. TrimTabs, which does a great job, has documented a chronic over-supply of stock week in and week out for the last couple of years, and interestingly its getting WORSE as the market has gone down, not better. Anyway, end of rant. Cheers

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