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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook

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To: Don Green who wrote (1727)4/15/2003 8:01:49 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) of 49408
 
I just can't see how the dollar can weaken if all of the other countries are as weak or weaker than the U.S. economy. Where would or could moneyflow go to improve their investment value? Everyone is doing poorly.

What will happen if USD starts printing serious amounts of money, while the rest of the world is also doing poor economically? US prints money, the value of USD decreases. It is that simple.

As for your question of where the money would go:

(1) Currencies weaken, gold, precious metals etc appreciate as people run away from increasingly worthless fiat currencies
(2) Funds move to main currencies with higher interest rates, which subsequently appreciate versus USD
(3) Funds move to t-bills of emerging market countries, which offer double-digit real interest rates

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but I guess you get the general idea - the USD is just another fiat currency, whose fortunes are dependent on the same old supply/demand balance.
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