ELECTIONS-ECUADOR: A Kind of Comeback for Gutiérrez
Kintto Lucas
QUITO, Nov 13 (IPS) - Supporters of Lucio Gutiérrez, the former president of Ecuador who was overthrown in 2005, will play a key role in the second round of voting on Nov. 26 to elect, as the next head of state, either banana magnate Álvaro Noboa or leftwinger Rafael Correa.
The former president was banned by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) from running in the current presidential election. But his brother Gilmar Gutiérrez, in his stead, came in third in the first round on Oct. 15 with 17.4 percent of the vote, and his leftwing nationalist Patriotic Society Party (PSP) will be the second largest party in the single-chamber Congress in the next legislative term, with 23 out of 100 seats.
Although several analysts have ventured to predict that Lucio Gutiérrez would reach "an arrangement to support Álvaro Noboa," neither of the brothers nor their party has yet decided whether to support either of the candidates.
PSP leaders expressed their personal preference that their voters should freely choose how to cast their votes. "Party members will be free to decide which candidate they prefer, based on their own reasoning," said Ximena Bohórquez, Lucio Gutiérrez's wife and a reelected congresswoman.
She also stated that overseeing and monitoring the present government is a job that "only Congress can do," and therefore her party's legislators would remain "firmly at that task."
Another PSP congressman, Luis Almeida, was in favour of not explicitly supporting either of the candidates.
He also said that the PSP bloc in the next congressional period, which begins on Jan. 5, would act "independently," supporting those government initiatives that "benefit the people," and opposing those that "go against" the general good.
Political analysts agree that endorsement by leaders and parties left out of the race in the second round does not automatically guarantee their supporters' votes, but their declarations are important in any case.
"Elections over the last 20 years have shown that voters for parties that don't get past the first round do not necessarily vote for the candidates their leaders support in the second round," said Hugo Barber, director of Datanálisis, a local polling company.
According to Barber, declarations of "support (by party leaders) are an indication of what kind of alliances might be formed at the political and social level during the future government," and therefore what "the parliamentary activity" and the "shape" of the new government are likely to be.
To date, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), the social democrat Democratic Left party, the indigenous Pachakutik Movement and diverse urban and rural social movements have declared their emphatic support for Correa.
In contrast, former president (1996 until his expulsion in 1997) Abdalá Bucaram's Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE), and the rightwing Social Christian Party have come out in favour of Noboa.
After the first round, the PSP made it known that they would support the candidate who committed himself to bring to justice those "responsible for the coup d'état" against Gutiérrez on Apr. 20, 2005, and announced that their members of Congress would initiate an audit of the present administration of Alfredo Palacio.
They hope to be able to "punish" government officials, congressional deputies and members of the armed forces who they suspect of being involved in Gutiérrez's overthrow. They attribute the chief responsibility to Palacio and the military commanders of the time.
Álvaro Noboa had spoken out in favour of punishing those who took part in toppling Gutiérrez, and he placed Rafael Correa on that list, because he served as economy minister for the first three months after the coup.
He also said that he had great respect for "the Gutiérrez brothers," and that he was sure he could count on the support of the PSP.
Meanwhile, Correa showed a willingness to investigate the Palacio administration, particularly because of certain contracts signed in the last few months.
He also attributed the high number of votes garnered by the PSP in rural areas to the sound agrarian policies of the Gutiérrez administration.
"Poor people in Patriotic Society are like poor people in all the parties, and their support is welcome, because our government will be for all the poor people in the country," Correa said.
Gutiérrez told the Channel 1 television network that his goal, and that of his party's legislators-elect, is to lay the foundations "for stability in the country."
"Whoever wins the elections, whether Noboa or Correa, will find it impossible to govern," if from the moment he takes office "there are people conspiring to overthrow him," so it is necessary to set a precedent "so that there will be no more coups d'état," he said.
Retired colonel Fausto Cobo, deputy-elect and former administration secretary during the last months of Gutiérrez's government, said that the planned audit "will not be an act of revenge," because "the aim is to ensure stability in the country, and that there are no more coups d'état."
"The country has given us its support, because they recognise that what occurred on Apr. 20 (2005) was a coup," Cobo said.
Of course, this will be part of a possible new agreement with any political sector. The plan is first to seek control of the Congressional Oversight Commission, a key aspect of the PSP's strategy.
Gutiérrez and Cobo participated, with other officers and the indigenous movement, in the social protests which brought down the government of Jamil Mahuad, in January 2000.
In the first round of the presidential elections on Oct. 15, Noboa came first, with 26.8 percent of the vote, followed by Correa, with 22.8 percent. In the early days of the run-up to the second round of voting, the gap between them grew.
Informe Confidencial, a consultancy, published the results of a survey just hours before the "curfew" for electoral research on Nov. 6. According to this poll, 46 percent of those interviewed intended to vote for Noboa, and 35 percent for Correa.
However, the results of a final poll carried out on Nov. 7, to which IPS had access, found Correa to be gaining ground and Noboa's support waning, which suggests that the election will be close-fought and the outcome uncertain, with a very narrow margin.
Ecuador entered a period of recurring institutional crises in 1996.
Conservative president Sixto Durán Ballén was the last to serve out his whole term (1992-1996). He was succeeded by rightwinger Abdalá Bucaram, who was removed by Congress on Feb. 6, 1997, after less than six months in office.
Congress declared him "mentally unfit to govern," without the benefit of a medical examination or the right to a defence.
His vice-president, Rosalía Arteaga, claimed the post according to her constitutional right of succession, but was ousted after only two days.
The head of Congress, Fabián Alarcón, became interim president (Feb. 11, 1997-Aug.10, 1998). He handed over to Mahuad, the second round winner of an election against present candidate Álvaro Noboa. Noboa complained of fraud, but this was never proved.
Mahuad governed Ecuador until Jan. 22, 2000, when he was ousted by an uprising of indigenous people supported by rebellious junior officers, among them Gutiérrez, who formed a triumvirate which lasted only a few hours.
Mahuad was replaced by his vice-president, Gustavo Noboa, who was sworn in and signed his first decree at the Ministry of Defence, not in Congress.
Gustavo Noboa was president from Jan. 22, 2000 until Jan. 15, 2003, when he handed over to Gutiérrez, winner of the 2002 elections, in which Álvaro Noboa again lost in the second round.
Gutiérrez in turn was deposed by Congress after a week of protests in the streets of Quito.
One month later, the minister of Government, Mauricio Gándara, brought charges against him of undermining state security, because he appeared on the CNN television network and called the Palacio administration "illegal" and "de facto."
On being overthrown he took refuge in Brazil, where he stayed for a few weeks. Then he travelled through the United States, Colombia and Peru, and returned to Ecuador on Oct. 14, 2005. He was imprisoned, along with Fausto Cobo and his own brother Gilmar Gutiérrez, until Mar. 4, when the High Court of Justice in Quito threw out the case and ordered his release. (END/2006)
ipsnews.net |
