OT:
Josef,
Well, I'm not much of a precious metals fan at the moment although I have been participating in some general discussions of precious metals over on the Gold Price Monitor thread.
Silver is a different metal and has far more industial uses than gold, IMO.
As for being a bear, I think they make some very strong arguments about the overall economic problems we're facing that might impact even good companies and their stocks.
I've been very concerned due to the Y2K problem, both domestically, and especially overseas. I'm hoping that we'll lick the majority of the issues here in the US, but hold little confidence in Asia, Latin America, or some countries in Europe.
AG is having a heck of time trying to balance economic growth here while being forced to act as a global central banker for the rest of the world at the same time. Eventually, something will have to give and the extent of that systemic breakdown will be the difference between our suffering a recession or a full-blown global depression.
Note that Ed Yardeni has reduced his probability of a US recession from 75% to 45%. Still high statistically, but certainly more comforting.
Overseas will prove the ultimate determination and my sources here in DC are not especially confident in foreign preparation nor can they predict the amount of potential impact that may result.
So we have to wonder whether we will see more capital flight to the US bond and equity markets as a result, or a flight to precious metals.
It is the million dollar question for me right now.
Regards,
Ron |
